Oil leads the way today as US crude moves above $48 to a new 6 week high. Speculation of an OPEC agreement to freeze output levels and new orders to ship US crude to Europe are driving prices higher, even as skepticism of cooperation among oil producing nations remains. It's a good move, but this is a similar scenario to April when they failed to reach an agreement on output.

The Energy Select SPDR (XLE) is up 1.23%, hitting the high of the day at midday. XLE has made a significant breakout through $70 and a new high for 2016. This move takes it out of the range it has been trading in since mid-April.

The S&P500 and NASDAQ are modestly higher and the DOW slightly lower after the Fed minutes yesterday.  NYSE advancers are a solid 69% on 66% up volume, with 120 stocks making new 52 week highs. Utilities are outperforming, benefiting from the perception that the minutes indicate no rate hike action. Gold is up .5% as the dollar weakens on the same "no rate hike" scenario.

Initial claims for the week ending August 13 decrease 4,000 to 262,000 from the prior week, and the 4 week moving average increased 2,500 to 265,250.  And now we are at 76 consecutive weeks of claims below 300,000.