Wall Street Strategies
Hello! Sign in or Register


Morning Commentary

The Consumer Doing Heavy Lifting

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
8/12/2016 9:49 AM

I mentioned this week you never want to short a dull market, and markets tend to get really dull and lackluster in August. But the stock market has been anything but this month, as the S&P raced to a record high for the ninth time this month.

The unique one-two punch came from higher crude and much better than expected retail earnings. The energy sector climbed 1.5% on more signs the central players in the Oil War are ready to blink.

Consumer Discretionary names soared after Macy and Kohl’s blew away Wall Street earnings consensus.  Part of the Macy’s rally included the announcement of closing 100 stores early next year. Management says workers will be placed in nearby stores, but if they are laid-off, severance will be paid.

XLE

Energy

 

 

XLY

Consumer

Discretionary

 

1.5%

 

 

1.0%

 

 

 
I made the observation this week we were seeing strength in luxury retail, and discount retail, and that was the case again today. This all dovetails with signs of increased consumer spending, which I’ve been pointing out for a few months now.

There is no doubt the increase in credit card spending and lower savings means this trend can’t last long unless wages increase very soon.  For now, this trend probably continues today as Nordstrom’s has beat the street by $0.12 and raised full year guidance.

Then there’s JC Penny (JCP), which is defying death and seems to be beating competition.

Retail Sales

Government retail sales numbers show consumers taking a breather from the blistering pace of prior months, but these are lagging numbers, and I think it’s still the year over year trends we should follow closer.

I think autos have peaked, and despite the pause in building materials and restaurants, I think year over year numbers will remain strong.  Of course, when we lament the closing of 100 Macy’s locations as signs of an economy in peril, we must look at the 14.1% surge in online retail to put in different prospective.

Retail Sales

July 2016

M/M

Y/Y

Headline

0.0

 

Autos

0.2

4.3

Furniture

0.2

4.3

Building Material

-0.5

3.5

Groceries

-0.9

1.1

Health

0.1

7.8

Gasoline

-2.7

-11.0

Sporting Goods

-2.2

2.1

Department Stores

-0.5

-4.0

Online

1.3

14.1

Restaurant

-0.2

5.0

 


 

Log In To Add Your Comment


Home | Products & Services | Education | In The Media | Help | About Us |
Disclaimer | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use |
All Rights Reserved.

 

×