Morning Commentary
Late Friday, the White House released its updated forecast on economic growth for the next few years. You may not be surprised, but they lowered their forecast for this year and subsequent years. These forecasts are largely symbolic, but the key is the admission of slow growth for many years to come. The positive spin is interest rates stay low resulting in America paying $770 billion less in debt services. Such silver linings become excuses or cover to add on even more debt.
WH GDP Forecast |
Updated |
Previous |
2016 |
1.9% |
2.6% |
2017 |
2.5% |
2.6% |
2018 |
2.2% |
2.3% |
Currently the Atlanta Fed sees 2Q GDP at 2.4%, which is lower than their mid-June estimate, but inflation is running hotter. This could mean it’s going to be hard to have our cake and eat it, too.
Date |
Major Releases |
GDP |
PCE |
17-Jun |
Housing starts |
2.8 |
4.1 |
22-Jun |
Existing home sales |
2.8 |
4.1 |
23-Jun |
New home sales/construct. costs |
2.7 |
4.1 |
24-Jun |
Advance durable manufacturing |
2.6 |
4.1 |
27-Jun |
Advance intl. trade (goods) |
2.5 |
4.1 |
29-Jun |
GDP (Jun 28), Personal Income/PCE |
2.7 |
4.3 |
1-Jul |
Constr. spending, ISM Manufacturing |
2.6 |
4.4 |
5-Jul |
Auto sales, M3 Manufacturing |
2.4 |
4.3 |
6-Jul |
Foreign trade, ISM Nonmanufacturing |
2.4 |
4.3 |
8-Jul |
Employment situation |
2.4 |
4.3 |
13-Jul |
Imp./Exp. prices, Treasury statement |
2.3 |
4.3 |
15-Jul |
Retail trade, Industrial production |
2.4 |
4.5 |
It’s a bet on the Internet of Things, which will be huge. I’ve been in many of these names, and while it’s been too early for most individual investors to absorb the ups and downs, the fact is, Soft Bank paid a huge premium because it’s a smart company. The morale of the story is it’s time to consider your long term goals in a manner that matches the long term thinking of successful companies.
We are going to keep our powder dry this morning.
Comments |
Unfortunately the economic reports are not center stage with the barrage of terrorist attacks and police being killed. Every terrorist attack and police attack are a nail in the coffin of Hillary's unbridled political ambition for the Presidency, and a plus for Trump. Ray Weldon on 7/18/2016 10:48:07 AM |
I don't know what the track record is for white house releases on the expected future economy, but without some basis for believing them the information should be discarded. I also don't pay much attention to predictions about next year given in December by people who don't have a track record. Pretty similar expectations of them being right. Fred Fred Leffingwell on 7/18/2016 11:14:38 AM |
Even my brokerage house agrees we are in for long term slow growth. I am resisting the urge to dive into the market because it will be almost impossible to make back any money lost when this rally crumbles. Ray F. on 7/18/2016 12:19:35 PM |
Charles, Left field here as I tried to tweet (1st timer here) you but it went to someone who'd replied to you. Duh! I'm here to thank you for your great interview that laid bare the falsity of the anti-2nd Amendment crowd's round-about tactics. The LG threw his mic in sheer arrogance. You were dead on the money, on point - laser beam focused - and I thank you for that! We love Charles Payne here in WA state! Daily viewers here. Thanks again! You rock. Laura on 7/18/2016 1:05:34 PM |
Only the Obama Administration could spin lousy economic performance as having a silver lining. Since this administration put us in the incredible debt problem in the first place, it's only logical they want to sell the public on the idea that borrowing trillions of dollars was a good idea. Gale Johnson on 7/18/2016 1:11:12 PM |
Tweet |
4/24/2024 1:30 PM | Earnings Flood In |
4/24/2024 9:26 AM | BUYING THE DIP |
4/23/2024 1:25 PM | Bloom Off Rose |
4/23/2024 9:32 AM | WHAT HAPPENED TO THE BRAVADO? |
4/22/2024 1:22 PM | Pins and Needles |
4/22/2024 9:30 AM | LIVE BY THE SWORD … |
4/19/2024 1:20 PM | Fair Chunk of Rotation |
4/19/2024 9:35 AM | DON’T OVERREACT |
4/18/2024 1:37 PM | Didn’t Break Down |
4/18/2024 9:40 AM | MARKET OFF SCRIPT |
4/17/2024 1:59 PM | Facing Pressure |
4/17/2024 9:37 AM | POWELL STILL WANTS TO HELP |
4/16/2024 1:35 PM | Muted |
4/16/2024 9:42 AM | FEAR ARRIVES |
4/15/2024 1:17 PM | Making a Statement |
4/15/2024 9:45 AM | Equal Opportunity Drubbing |
4/12/2024 1:37 PM | Pressure Overall |
4/12/2024 9:42 AM | WHO YA GONNA CALL? |
4/11/2024 1:38 PM | No Urgency |
4/11/2024 9:27 AM | Tough Sledding |
4/10/2024 1:22 PM | Hang In There |
4/10/2024 9:51 AM | HERE COMES THE LATEST RATIONALE FOR PERSISTENT INFLATION |
4/9/2024 1:56 PM | Fighting the Trend |
4/9/2024 9:46 AM | NEXT TIME, MAKE IT A HOLIDAY |
4/8/2024 9:45 PM | Cautious Feel |
More commentary archives |
Home |
Products & Services |
Education |
In The Media |
Help |
About Us |
Disclaimer | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use | All Rights Reserved.
|