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Morning Commentary

Signs of Momentum

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
7/11/2016 6:09 AM

Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve pointed to two things leading up to Friday’s jobs report;  there were signs of economic momentum, particularly in employment and signs that the market was ready to make good news actually good news.

However, we got great news partly because expectations were so low.  After generating only 38,000 jobs in March, everyone was bracing for another dud.  Other numbers include the following:

There’s no doubt the economy is sluggish, and we are close to 2 million jobs short of where we should be under normal circumstances, which is why the Fed probably won’t hike rates this year.  Meanwhile, Friday’s session had that train-pulling-out-of-the-station feeling.   Buying begets buying.  That’s the theme for this week as major indices have a chance to move to all-time records.

The S&P 500 is right there, it just needs a close above 2,130.

For the Dow, the magic number is 18,312.

The NASDAQ is the farthest away, and needs to clear key resistance points before taking on its old high point of 5,218.

I like Citrix (CTXS) here. It is making a series of higher highs and going through its 50-day moving average. I promised more names to buy based on this jobs report; I will have them posted on my website by this afternoon.  

Today's Session

We've been here before in 2016, in fact we've been here many times and each resulted in the same fate- a failure to breakout followed by a swift move to the bottom of the trading range.  I get these are famous last words but "this time feels different".

Earning's season kicks off this week and while all eyes are on AA I'm wondering if ORZK gave the market its biggest clue with a record quarter for net income.  The results beat the Street and the stock is indicating much higher.  A close above $40 reverses a down trend line. 

Big banks report this week and it is time to see signs of high lending and an approach to business that doesn't revolve 100% around the Fed.  As for large indices it's a case of closing at new highs and then defending the breakouts by testing old resistance as new support. 

I called for new highs on a strong jobs report so I feel good about it happening but I also know this is where bears and other big money naysayers will fight vigorously.


Comments
What goes UP, will come DOWN.

joe Cayman on 7/11/2016 10:24:45 AM
Capital flows from Europe, Japan, and China are driving this market, and will continue to do so for the near and medium term.

James on 7/11/2016 10:51:49 AM
Market certainly have a "buy dips" feel about it. I hope that is not wishful thinking.

George Hawkins on 7/11/2016 10:59:43 AM
Joe, spoken like a true short term momentum investor. Trade yourself crazy. The tax man will love you.

E.V. on 7/11/2016 2:07:25 PM
 

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