Afternoon Note
Lots of data and while results were mixed versus estimates there’s a general trend that economy is moving in right direct but as a glacial pace. New home sales missed consensus but trending higher. The annual pace of 495,000 up from 447,000 in September and 472,000 a year ago just missed the street’s anticipated 500,000.
Supply continues to be a problem as month supply dropping to 5.5 from 6.0 but there are other issues.
Price
I like that prices dipped they have been running too far ahead of sales creating an untenable situation and greater downside risk.
Average selling price of $281,500 is down 8.5% from preceding month and 6.0% from year earlier.
We’re still seeing lower-end home sales struggle for traction.
Price Segmentation |
Under $150,000 |
$150,000 $199,999 |
$200,000 $299,999 |
$300,000 $399,999 |
$400,000 $499,999 |
$500,000 Plus |
September |
2,000 |
5,000 |
10,000 |
7,000 |
7,000 |
5,000 |
October |
2,000 |
6,000 |
14,000 |
9,000 |
4,000 |
6,000 |
Confidence
Another consumer sentiment read from University of Michigan has come in below the consensus estimate but up from previous month. At 91.3 the headline edges up from 90.0 but the mavens on Wall Street were looking for 93.1.
By the way, this morning I posted wrong number on savings- it was a lot higher at 5.6%.
State of Consumer |
Change |
Personal Income |
+0.4 |
Personal Spending |
+0.1 |
Savings |
5.6% |
Big Business
Durable goods are notoriously volatile so we don’t make broad judgements on one or two but this morning’s release was encouraging. A large chunk of the report reflected a huge order for Boeing but overall the number encouraging. Remember business investment is the critical component needed for banner GDP growth.
New Orders
Headline +3.0
Ex-Transportation +0.5
Ex-Defense +3.2
Business +1.3
Summary
The market seems to be marking time while it digests all the economic data. Overall the upside bias alone speaks to a shift in anticipation for better economic growth.
Tweet |
4/18/2024 1:37 PM | Didn’t Break Down |
4/18/2024 9:40 AM | MARKET OFF SCRIPT |
4/17/2024 1:59 PM | Facing Pressure |
4/17/2024 9:37 AM | POWELL STILL WANTS TO HELP |
4/16/2024 1:35 PM | Muted |
4/16/2024 9:42 AM | FEAR ARRIVES |
4/15/2024 1:17 PM | Making a Statement |
4/15/2024 9:45 AM | Equal Opportunity Drubbing |
4/12/2024 1:37 PM | Pressure Overall |
4/12/2024 9:42 AM | WHO YA GONNA CALL? |
4/11/2024 1:38 PM | No Urgency |
4/11/2024 9:27 AM | Tough Sledding |
4/10/2024 1:22 PM | Hang In There |
4/10/2024 9:51 AM | HERE COMES THE LATEST RATIONALE FOR PERSISTENT INFLATION |
4/9/2024 1:56 PM | Fighting the Trend |
4/9/2024 9:46 AM | NEXT TIME, MAKE IT A HOLIDAY |
4/8/2024 9:45 PM | Cautious Feel |
4/8/2024 7:19 AM | IT’S ECLIPSE DAY |
4/5/2024 1:51 PM | Higher and Cheaper |
4/5/2024 9:23 AM | MARKETS REEL ON BIDEN’S ISRAEL ULTIMATUM |
4/4/2024 1:42 PM | Stocks Bounce |
4/4/2024 9:31 AM | ESCAPING GRAVITY = ESCAPING REALITY? |
4/3/2024 1:41 PM | Cuts Not Soon |
4/3/2024 9:33 AM | A LITTLE LESS SWAGGER |
4/2/2024 1:16 PM | Under Pressure |
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