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Afternoon Note

Marking Time

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
11/25/2015 1:08 PM

Lots of data and while results were mixed versus estimates there’s a general trend that economy is moving in right direct but as a glacial pace.   New home sales missed consensus but trending higher.  The annual pace of 495,000 up from 447,000 in September and 472,000 a year ago just missed the street’s anticipated 500,000.

Supply continues to be a problem as month supply dropping to 5.5 from 6.0 but there are other issues.

Price

I like that prices dipped they have been running too far ahead of sales creating an untenable situation and greater downside risk.

Average selling price of $281,500 is down 8.5% from preceding month and 6.0% from year earlier.

We’re still seeing lower-end home sales struggle for traction.

Price Segmentation

Under

$150,000

$150,000

$199,999

$200,000

$299,999

$300,000

$399,999

$400,000

$499,999

$500,000

Plus

September

2,000

5,000

10,000

7,000

7,000

5,000

October

2,000

6,000

14,000

9,000

4,000

6,000

Confidence

Another consumer sentiment read from University of Michigan has come in below the consensus estimate but up from previous month.  At 91.3 the headline edges up from 90.0 but the mavens on Wall Street were looking for 93.1.

By the way, this morning I posted wrong number on savings- it was a lot higher at 5.6%.

State of Consumer

Change

Personal Income

+0.4

Personal Spending

+0.1

Savings

5.6%

Big Business

Durable goods are notoriously volatile so we don’t make broad judgements on one or two but this morning’s release was encouraging.  A large chunk of the report reflected a huge order for Boeing but overall the number encouraging.  Remember business investment is the critical component needed for banner GDP growth.

New Orders

Headline +3.0

Ex-Transportation +0.5

Ex-Defense        +3.2

Business +1.3

Summary

The market seems to be marking time while it digests all the economic data.  Overall the upside bias alone speaks to a shift in anticipation for better economic growth.


 

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