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Morning Commentary

Markets Make Statement

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
11/17/2015 5:54 AM

S&P
Sector Performance

Energy

3.28

Telecom

2.10

Utilities

1.69

Consumer
Staples

1.64

 Info Tech

1.42

Materials

1.27

Financials

1.25

Health Care

1.25

Consumer
Discretionary

1.23

Industrials

1.20

S&P 500

1.49

Once again, the market didn’t cower to cowards.  After a shaky start, stocks began to pick up steam with oversold stocks catching bids. No particular industry or stock stood out for extraordinary action, aside from the battering of biotechnology.  With that in mind, a look at all sectors underscores widespread buying, but the mix underscores anxiety and shaky confidence.  Utilities and telecom scored high, mostly as safe havens.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) made a strong bounce that actually sparked a wider equity rebound early in the session.

I expected crude to be higher yesterday; interestingly, there are sideline stories that make oil even more intriguing.  Yesterday, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin made comments that would normally be this morning’s headline.  According to Russian intelligence, ISIS is being financed by 40 different countries, including some G20 nations that purchase the terror group’s stolen oil.  So, lucrative oil brings in an estimated one to two million dollars a day to ISIS.

Apparently, the oil motorcades are so long; from a height of 3,000 feet, they look like an oil pipeline with trucks stretched “beyond the horizon.”

By the way, Putin called on support from U.S., Europe, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iran to fight ISIS.  I am still not sure if they are his main target; at least until he can shed Syria of Assad’s other enemies.  That said, if there was an effort to identify buyers of illicit oil and to find out which western banks were washing ISIS’ cash, the fight against terror could be won sooner… maybe the price of crude would move higher.

This all leads to an assumption that ISIS’ oil infrastructure will be permanently targeted.  Until recently, it’s been completely ignored.

Today’s Session

Equity futures have been higher all morning long, but with retail in the spotlight, there will be a lot of push and pull.  The heavyweights have come through with earnings beats and guidance that have their shares indicating to open higher.

Home Depot (HD) Beat on the top and bottom lines and guidance is making the street cheer.  There is a chance the stock could test its all-time high today.

Wal-Mart (WMT) has mixed results betting consensus earnings by a penny and fractionally missing on revenue.  The details are more encouraging, however, as same store sales of 1.5% in the United States marks the fifth consecutive quarter of increases.  Traffic improved by 1.7% and management guidance hints at perhaps a bottom for performance, and maybe the share price.

TJ Max (TJX) beat consensus estimates on the top and bottom as same store sales of 5.0% was driven by Home Goods 6.0% improvement.

On the other end of the spectrum:

Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) struck out big time and its shares are paying a significant price. Golf Galaxy continues to struggle with sales down 2.9%. Wall Street was only looking for a dip of 0.2%.

So, where does this bring retail as we head into Christmas?  I think positive surprises could happen from lower expectations, although there’s no reason to believe winners will squander momentum.  Gallup sees Americans spending on Christmas surging to its highest level in seven years.

I’m still reluctant to chase gap opens these days as the issue isn’t valuation, or even fundamentals, for many sectors and individual companies, but the whipsaw nature of the market these days.  

 


Comments
Let Putin deal with ISIS in Syria. The USA should make a deal with Iraq and go in with an overwhelming force and get rid of ISIS in Iraq.

Rodman Johnson on 11/17/2015 1:21:50 PM
 

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