Midway through the most notorious month of the year (most dangerous has been September), due to the previous high profile market crashes, there’s a sense of a turnaround.  However, last week was all the more impressive as the bounce came with little fanfare or hype, and no particular news as a catalyst.  However, after 1400 sessions without a correction, the market has to start new upside trends.

For the Dow Jones Industrial Average that means getting back to 18,000 as the old trend line that held as support for years is now going to be formidable resistance.

Chatterboxes

If the Federal Reserve holds the future of the economy and the stock market in their collective hands; maybe we’ll get a better sense of our fate this week; and maybe we won’t.  These folks talk a lot and it makes me long for the Greenspan era, when it only mattered what the “Maestro” had to say, even if we never truly understood what he was saying.

Today, we’ll hear from three voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which could set the tone for the rest of the week.  As I have said in the past, it’s about doves becoming hawks and vice-versa.  When I see analysts use reiterations of existing positions to bolster their own, I know it’s a waste of time or an exercise in psyching themselves out.

With the banks and the bond market closed in observance of Columbus Day, we should see thin volume, but this will be an eventual week that needs to pick up on last week’s rally.