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Morning Commentary

The New Norm?

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
10/5/2015 8:31 AM

There is still much confusion over the jobs report, and the reaction on Friday.  Those that boil the market down to its most simplistic aspects are rejoicing as they see the Fed holding pat. But that wouldn’t explain the initial 258 point drubbing, or why the Dow is still down 2,000 points from the high, and global markets are at multi-year lows.  On the other hand, when a firm like JP Morgan says we should expect 75,000 jobs a month as a new and okay norm, it blows my mind.  I’m not sure what birth-death model they’re using, but it flies in the face of conventional wisdom and common sense.

I get that birth rate is low, and lifespans are longer, but the notion we should welcome lower job creation data is nuts.

This economy never got on track the way it could or should have because of suicidal fiscal policies.  If we had the same animosity toward tyranny in the world that the administration has against individual and business success in America, there would be no ISIS; they would be decimated like the coal industry.  But there is the intuitive nature of Americans to succeed even as there are fewer incentives and lots of penalties along the way.

For the moment, there are still a lot of unanswered questions from corporate profits to consumer spending.  Maybe, I should have flipped those since the latter has to influence the former, except for the last couple of years, when it’s been about fewer shares rather than top line growth.  I like when companies buy back its shares, but I love when companies have confidence to build factories and hire people.  By the way, government can’t make this happen, but must facilitate a backdrop that encourages this to happen.

For now, the markets around the world are higher, mostly consolidating new bottoms, which is positive, but not the same as launching.

I’ll excited about the opportunities but let’s stay cool and calm.  This is a period where we have to chase a little, which means we won’t get the absolute bottom, but will feel very confident after clearing key technology and fundamental hurdles.


Comments
Within 10 years, as the Boomers age out, deaths will exceed births for the first time in our history, and that will last until Americans wake up to the fact that moderate population growth is healthy for the economy. Right now, both births and abortion are declining, reflecting the Baby Bust that hit us in the '70's through the '90's. Fewer people born then means fewer people having babies today. China is even worse off. By 2050, their population will be down by at least 400 million as their huge older population dies off. This is the untold story of the century because our politically correct media can't stand telling the truth about the economic impact of 47 years of abortion on demand. We've aborted 30% of Gen X, Y, and Z and we think it is some kind of free lunch. By my calculation, it has cost us $50 trillion in cumulative lost GDP. No wonder we can't carry $18.6 trillion in federal debt. This month, I'll celebrate 65 years as a writer, journalist and market researcher, but these days few people are willing to listen. What we've been doing to ourselves is 100 times more fatal than what's happening in the Middle East.

Dennis Howard on 10/5/2015 10:15:37 AM
The September employment report is bordering on the really bad.

The Labor Department said 142,000 jobs were added in September. Offsetting this was a reduction in their July estimate of 22,000 jobs and their August estimate of 37,000 jobs. The September net increase is 83,000 jobs.

The BLS reported the Unemployment Rate remained at 5.1% and the Participation Rate declined to 62.4%, the lowest since September 1977.

The numbers making up the Unemployment Rate and Participation Rate changed in a very unusual manner. The number employed went down, the number of unemployed went down and the number not in the labor force went up: (These are Seasonally Adjusted, Unadjusted were similar)

August Report September Report Change
(in Thousands)
Employed 149,036 148,800 -236
Unemployed 8,029 7,915 -114
Not in Labor Force 94,031 94,601 +570

The Labor Department said +142 thousand, The BLS said -236 thousand change to the number of employed. They use different methods and rarely agree, but 570 thousand leaving the workforce is a sign of a weak economy.

I do more than just analyze employment data. I also analyze the relationship between unadjusted employment data and the Gross National Product (GNP). They are very highly correlated. (Well duh! The GNP is the value of all the goods and services produced and it takes working people to produce them.)

The unadjusted number of employed people declined 494 thousand in August and 248 thousand in September. This suggests the GNP report for the third quarter will be negative. It will be out in early November. You heard it here first.

Chris Reinhardt on 10/5/2015 12:14:58 PM
Mr.Reinhardt is on point / we need working people
& all these laws hindering small and large business must change fast/ Our political correct issues are a disaster to every one.Our Congress controls the purse & must have backbone if not the labor force will revolt and that will hurt every one. We need new young people in Congress the old way or the highway is dead #wakeupAmerica

Ramon Espinosa on 10/5/2015 1:34:04 PM
Finally someone who (Dennis) thinks like me....now address the replacement population ...if you can't change the vote...change the voter....

Bonnie on 10/5/2015 2:08:51 PM
Dennis Howard Congratulations! and celebrate personally even if we can not nationally! Your comments are welcome!

James Carley on 10/5/2015 8:18:56 PM
Thanks for the positive comments. There is hope for the "replacement population." In 2016, Gen X and Gen Y will make up a majority of the voting age population for the first time. The question is: how will they vote? With Bernie Sanders or a viable conservative? That's why it is vital for conservatives to make a major effort to reach them with the facts about what liberal policies have done to undermine their future. Yes, we need to make America great again, but the devil is in the details. We need more than sloganeering. We need to wake young people up from their politically correct slumber and offer them a plan of action that they can believe in and act on personally. Passively leaving it up to Washington -- no matter how high sounding their promises -- doesn't work. We need citizen entrepreneurs who dare to work to build a better future.

Dennis Howard on 10/6/2015 9:50:02 AM
 

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