Afternoon Note
Please watch ‘Making Money With Charles Payne’ on Fox Business – tonight at 6PM ET, my special guest is GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump.
So much for that manufacturing renaissance promised by President Obama as we are barely hanging on to moderate growth, which continues to slow. The headline read of 50.2 is just bobbing above the expansion/contraction line, coming in at the lowest level since May 2013. At this pace, we could see the headline slip into contraction in the next report. New orders were off a bunch and backlog has simply crashed.
Yesterday, we saw a big decline in manufacturing jobs now corroborated by the ISM.
ISM Manufacturing Index September 2015 |
Series |
Percentage |
Direction |
Rate |
Trend* |
PMI® |
50.2 |
-0.9 |
Growing |
Slower |
33 |
New Orders |
50.1 |
-1.6 |
Growing |
Slower |
34 |
Production |
51.8 |
-1.8 |
Growing |
Slower |
37 |
Employment |
50.5 |
-0.7 |
Growing |
Slower |
5 |
Supplier Deliveries |
50.2 |
-0.5 |
Slowing |
Slower |
2 |
Inventories |
48.5 |
0 |
Contracting |
Same |
3 |
Customers' Inventories |
54.5 |
+1.5 |
Too High |
Faster |
2 |
Prices |
38.0 |
-1.0 |
Decreasing |
Faster |
11 |
Backlog of Orders |
41.5 |
-5.0 |
Contracting |
Faster |
4 |
Exports |
46.5 |
0 |
Contracting |
Same |
4 |
Imports |
50.5 |
-1.0 |
Growing |
Slower |
32 |
The news has wiped out any hopes of beginning the month, and new quarter, in the green. Around 8:30 this morning, there were signs the Dow could add a couple hundred points to the upside; now, it has given up that very same amount of ground.
Volatility continues, and the plot thickens, as it’s clear this uneven and inconsistent recovery leaves lots of unanswered questions.
It will be interesting to see if there’s buying into the close. I think so, but this is a tender box. Stocks are oversold but the economic backdrop is too tenuous to force the issue.
Clarification: This morning, I listed the top states with the greatest announced job cuts this year with Texas at the top. It offended liberals and conservatives. Before that, it was clear energy has been hit the hardest and I assumed most would connect that dot (I know about assuming). Pressed for time, had to get report out but Texas is a victim of crashing oil prices not progressive policies, like high taxes (which I mentioned). While I’m on it, my wife took me to task for writing we got ceramic floors put in….they are porcelain. Apparently, a “big difference.” Tough crowds! |
Comments |
porcelain or ceramic... doesn't matter to those in the 12% (the real number of unemployed) who can't afford either. Barry Gold on 10/1/2015 1:27:08 PM |
Charles, Your crowds are tough but that is why we listen to you! G Hawkins 3 on 10/1/2015 1:31:05 PM |
I see a continuation of dropping commodities led by oil. I don't understand the hesitation to approve US exports of oil. Is this a decision that can be made via the pen by our illustrious president, or must the initiative be undertaken by congress? I see no improvement in the future for our economy until we remove regulations and cut taxes across the board. Richard on 10/1/2015 1:38:28 PM |
Now, blame your goof on Texas on your wife. So....is she the face you'd put on the new $10 bill? After that you're qualified as a Republicon pres. candidate; gosh, even Jeb Bush (the so-called smart bush)wants to put Marg. Thatcher's face saying she "was Ronald Reagan's partner." True, but she's not an American citizen - does that mean he'd want Obama on the $100 bill? Ralph Meeker on 10/1/2015 2:04:00 PM |
St.Louis Fed charts. Recessions in gray. https://research.stlouisfed.org/dashboard/6286 Looks pretty healthy. E.V. Wagoner on 10/1/2015 2:19:10 PM |
Ha, ha, ha. Don't worry about the small gaffes, Charles. We love and respect you immensely. Thanks for all the useful information. George E. on 10/1/2015 3:11:14 PM |
THANKS CHARLES FOR YOU WORDS OF WISDOM, Joe joe cayman on 10/2/2015 2:09:19 AM |
"tender" box; i.e., the Tender Box is an indie rock band from Los Angeles? PT Bambord on 10/2/2015 8:31:39 AM |
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