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Afternoon Note

Walking that (thin) Line

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
9/29/2015 1:39 PM

I keep a close watch on this heart of mine
I keep my eyes wide open all the time
I keep the ends out for the tie that binds
Because you're mine, I walk the line

Walk the Line

Johnny Cash

Coming into the session, the market was right at some potential do-or-die points on the charts including the Dow hoovering right at 16,000.   How this market closes is a coin-toss.  On one hand, weakness was staved off but that buying didn’t beget additional buying.  For most, the greater part of valor at the moment is to hold off.  But it’s unlikely this market finishes the session flat.

Despite the struggle, I see buying into the final moments of trading. That doesn’t mean we close higher, just not at the lows of the session.

Conflicting Confidence

The consumer confidence out today is really a powerful signs for jobs and consumer spending.  The headline of 103 is significantly above consensus of 96.1 and improvement over 101.3 for August.   The news initial sent stocks higher as “jobs plentiful” hit highest level in eight years, but hard to get jobs also climbed higher.

Jobs

August

September

Plentiful

22.1

25.1

Hard to Get

21.7

24.3

Business conditions improved, but overall expectations remained flat underscoring the confusion over the future.

Business Conditions

August

September

Good

23.7

28.0

Bad

17.8

16.7

 
Once again, let’s not force the issue but do not lose focus.  We could be on the cusp of aggressive buying and need to be abreast of higher near-term risk.

Comments
The charts by several sources show a bear market for most of the major indices.

Rodman Johnson on 9/29/2015 2:35:36 PM
Momentum investors have severe indigestion; value investors are licking their chops.

E.V. Wagoner on 9/29/2015 3:19:13 PM
 

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