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Afternoon Note

In Need of Support

By Dominique Paul, Research Analyst
9/1/2015 1:53 PM

It would be nice to rejoice in the fact that it’s a new day, a new dawn, but we’re dealing with the same old, same old. The major equity indices have kicked off September in the red. We weren’t expecting a wonderful, overnight reversal, however, we were hoping that the Dow Jones Industrial Average wouldn’t give up over 400 points during the first half of today’s session. A long term support level for the Dow at this level is approximately 16,117, however, we may see it move even lower.

The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 aren’t doing much better. The NASDAQ has fallen over 100 points and the S&P 500 has fallen close to 50 points, so far in the session. The energy sector is showing a steep decline of over 3% following crude oil futures retreating 6% in today’s session to $46 per barrel. The technology and semiconductor ETFs are dragging down the NASDAQ as major technology companies such as Apple, Amazon, and Google pullback.

Economic Reports

We had a few economic reports released during today’s session that are doing little to move the market. Firstly, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released the August purchasing mangers’ index (PMI) report. For August, the PMI headline fell to 51.1 from a reading of 52.7 in July. This represents a slowdown in growth, however, we should be relieved that growth is still existent. Companies in food, beverage, and tobacco industries reported that lower crude oil prices helped fuel surcharges and allowed margin improvement. Also, within the commercial construction space and automotive industries, there has been strong, albeit slow, business. The employment component fell to 51.2, new orders fell to 51.7, and prices paid contracted further to 39.0. Overall, ISM’s report indicates a growing economy.

The Census Bureau released the July Construction Spending Report. During July, construction spending increased by 0.7% from the month of June to $1.083 trillion. On a yearly basis, this construction spending is up 13.7%. Growth was driven by none other than the private sector. Private residential construction rose by 15.6% year-over-year to $378.3 billion as spending for new multi-family units rose by 21.2% year-over-year and spending for new single family units rose by 15.8% year-over-year. On an annual basis, total public construction increased by 6.1%, but declined by 1.0% month-over-month. In fact, on a monthly basis, public construction spending has been cut significantly across multiple industries; the commercial industry saw the steepest monthly decline of 14.7%.


Comments
Did anyone notice that all the money that was supposedly saved on cheap gas prices and was supposed to fuel demand is being sucked away by skyrocketing electric bills and obamacare costs? There is you lack of demand!

Scott Manhart on 9/1/2015 2:19:50 PM
Gas prices dropped and whetted the money appetite of the Georgia legislature. Result was to increase state gasoline tax.
So much for the price drop.

Mike Pederson on 9/1/2015 3:18:23 PM
I don't find that support levels work as in 2008 the market averages and stocks kept falling through multiple support levels. I finally realized that the averages and stocks go up until they turn down and go down until they turn up. Now that is not true in a sideways market but works in a bull or bear market. I have 3 programs and all show a bear market started but do not show where or when it will end until the end happens when stocks turn up en masse. Some stocks will still go up but they will be in the minority. And of couse bear ETFs will rise. Whether this a 10, 20, 30 % or more correction remains to be seen

Rodman Johnson on 9/1/2015 5:13:21 PM
The shock is big ticket buyers are old now and down sizing! The wind is out of the sails! Five major countries are dead in the water! Blood is in the water and sharks(over supply & Federal Deficit)attacking!

Joe Hubbard on 9/2/2015 6:44:19 PM
 

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