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Afternoon Note

Shipping Out

By Dominique Paul, Research Analyst
8/4/2015 1:41 PM

Crude oil futures spiked this morning and are giving a lift to the energy sector. Oil prices are trading around $46.43, almost a 2% gain. This has not done much to help the major equity indices. The NASDAQ, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and S&P 500 traded most of the session in the red, but are currently hovering around the breakeven line. Gallup released its economic consumer confidence survey results for the month of July. The economic confidence index decreased to -12 from a -8 reading in June. The results reiterated how American’s are skeptical regarding the future of the economy. We also had one report this morning that hints at the direction of the economy.

The Census Bureau released its monthly Manufacturers’ Goods report for the month of June. June saw new orders rise by 1.8% month-over-month to $478.5 billion. This is a nice recovery from May where new orders declined by 1.1% month-over-month. When excluding transportation, new orders actually rose by 0.5%. Also positive from the quarter was the value of shipments rising by 0.5% during the quarter to $483.5 billion, rebounding after falling 0.2% in May. Unfilled orders increased very slightly to $1,194 billion. Overall, the month of June shows a nice improvement compared to the past few months.


Comments
I wonder about the consumer confidence issue. Is this because of next year's election? We say the market hates uncertainty. I believe the other side of the coin is that consumers hate uncertainty and are keeping their wallets closed until they see a viable way that they could at least break even in 2016.

Right now, it does not look good for us. Obviously, Hilarious Clinton is a bad choice for the economy (as well as foreign relations, homeland security, and just about everything else). But, so far, there is not a credible Republican candidate who would balance the budget or otherwise help the economy, especially considering their complicity in allowing O-bum-a to triple the national debt. The Trump card is a joker who can do nothing more than what Perot did in '92; derail the better candidate. Americans must remember the last 2 elections where fools dominated the polling places with the country as loser. Will we have a three-peat of inane vote-casting?

Bob G on 8/4/2015 7:32:41 PM
 

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