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Afternoon Note

Time Is Running Out for Greece

By WSS Research Team
6/19/2015 1:23 PM

By Jennifer Coombs, Research Analyst

After a busy week of economic data, we bookend the week with another negative session but will ultimately close out the week with returns in positive territory. The declines today are not entirely macro related, as today marks the second quadruple witching session of 2015. Quadruple witching occurs when stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire on the same day. The coalescence of these four expirations can boost trading volume and volatility as investors and dealers scramble to open and close positions. Therefore the loss today isn’t enough to wipe away the near-term optimism of the prior three sessions.

For the month of June, inflation expectations held unchanged in Atlanta Fed's survey, at a tame 1.9% - 10 basis points below the Fed’s goal for 2015. This, however, is up 20 basis points from April's 1.7%. Companies in the Fed district are reporting downticks this month for both sales and profit margins. Ultimately this is a small sign that yesterday’s Philly Fed report may not be the big outlier in manufacturing that we originally believed.

Time is running out for the Greeks and their aversion to austerity. The country’s stock market, the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE), is steeply dropping to territory last seen during the first debt crisis back in 2011. During today’s session, the euro dropped by 0.5% against the U.S. dollar to 1.13 as the Eurozone leaders have been summoned to an emergency summit in Brussels on Monday. Is this a definitive signal of a vote for a “Grexit”? Not necessarily, but it’s certainly not making matters easier for stock markets around the world waiting for an answer.

It’s somewhat comical, in my opinion, but Russia has now expressed giving financial aid to Greece - Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Russian President Vladimir Putin will be meeting today to discuss. Of course, Russia is going to want something out of it…probably several things. Most notably is the support of Greece in the voting of the extension of a prospective gas pipeline that would carry gas from Russian to Europe through Turkey. Russia ultimately promised the Greeks hundreds of millions of dollars in transit payments if they agreed to build the pipeline. Construction of the pipeline is expected to start next year and be completed in 2019. Nothing is set in stone, but of course, leave it to Russia to jump in and make an offer just as Greece is clawing for a way out of the hole they dug themselves.

 


Comments
The self-destruction of Greece should no longer be news. We have its history in books and pictures.

E.V. Wagoner on 6/19/2015 2:12:26 PM
I for one am ready to see them exit and be thrown into reality of spending their own money instead of borrowing to meet their operational budgets for a change. The lesson will be instructive for many economies doing the same thing.

Frank on 6/19/2015 5:49:13 PM
 

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