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Morning Commentary

Mergers Are The New CAPEX

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
5/28/2015 6:05 AM

Watch my show: Making Money With Charles Payne Fox Business 6PM

There are certain market trends that have developed during this bull market, including seasonal periods of weakness and strength. The question is, seeing a high probability of weakness into the end of next month, should investors ride it out or cool their heels on the sidelines. However, I think you have to ride them out if you want to be an "investor." This chart from iSPYETF underscores how blinking during lulls and occasional pullbacks have cost many "investors" a lot of money. Sure, when you become spoiled, a few weeks drifting might feel like the end of the world. However, it's another chance to get in, not out.

The NASDAQ closed at a record level and it’s breaking through a double top technical formation, which is usually a huge buy signal. If I had to quibble, I would have liked more volume, but the move was impressive, nonetheless.

The action was paced by Avago and Broadcom, an old tech survivor that will probably be gobbled up by this former unit of Hewlett Packard. These deals are absolutely amazing, sending both the acquirer and target soaring. Some will gripe this is all the work of the Federal Reserve. There's no doubt zero percent interest rates make deals more enticing. I think there's more to it, however. I see these deals as the new capital expenditures (CAPEX) and shortcut for research and development.

However, capital expenditures have suffered as buybacks and dividend payouts are now on pace to cross $1,000,000,000,000 (one trillion), so why not make it up via mergers.

Today’s Session

Initial jobless claims are on the rise as we get closer to the end of the month. For the week ended May 23rd, claims rose to 282,000 from an upwardly revised 275,000 (from 274,000) in the prior week. Nevertheless, this value can still be considered low when compared to the same week last year. The 4-week average for initial gains also rose slightly to 271,500, but is 10,000 lower than the 4-week average from a month ago. Claims increasing on a weekly basis for the month of May could potentially result in a disappointing employment report.


 

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