I know on the surface, it feels boring, but beneath the surface, things are bubbling. In fact, several parts of the market are on the cusp of breaking out and one key measure is breaking down.

The NASDAQ is back at its all-time high; forming a double top which is typically a bearish chart formation that would make a breakout monumental. A close above 5,100 could trigger a longer-term move that left the index at 400 points.

Interestingly, a lot of the standout momentum names were slightly lower yesterday. If they reload and play a role, it could be huge. However, it’s unlikely it will happen today with so many investors packing it in for a four-day weekend.

This has been a dull and uneventful market, but it's been resolved and the bias has been to the upside. It stands to reason that the most stealth and unloved rally in history could silently set-up for a major leg higher.

NASDAQ

Crude

Oil has regained its upward climb as drawdowns have replaced builds. Perhaps, the anxiety of the shorts, coupled by the pending summer driving season could provide the breakout catalyst.

WTI

While stocks and commodities are on the verge of breakouts, the Market Volatility Index (VIX) has slipped to a 2015 low, and it happens to be down 44% in the past three years. The so-called fear index has been dormant and devoid of fear. Some experts say that in and of itself is a red flag...you know, too complacent or too cocky. I'm no longer sure that's how one reads this index anymore. For me, with its gauge spikes, we should become more fearful.

VIX

After the close-Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Intuit (INTU), and Ross Stores (ROST) all beat on the bottom line and the initial reaction was for the stocks to begin trading higher in the aftermarket. All signs point toward a major breakout to the upside, even if they’re not written in neon lights.

Today’s Session

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the April inflation results this morning. For the month, the consumer price index increased by 0.1% month-over-month, in line with consensus, but at a slower pace than March where the index gained 0.2%. On an annual basis, inflation is down 0.2% in April after remaining unchanged in March. The major markets initially held strength following the news, later tanked before the open. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak this afternoon, so we may continue to see some volatility during the session.