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Afternoon Note

Spring Manufacturing Weak So Far

By Jennifer Coombs, Research Analyst
5/15/2015 1:39 PM

The market braced itself for a potentially rough session, but the major equity indices have been trading back and forth across the breakeven line for most of the session. Stocks around the world were mostly higher today, easing much of the worry brought on earlier in the week by the drastic rise in bond yields. Aside from the headlines, the market is being driven by a slew of company-specific data. Netflix (NFLX) announced its entrance into the Chinese market while mixed earnings at Nordstrom (JWN) and King Digital (KING) swayed investors in the opposite direction.

There was an unusually high volume of economic data released for a Friday, but the market now has a good sense of the overall sentiment so far this month. The very first indication of manufacturing activity in the month of May continues to be soft, like it has been all year. The Empire State Manufacturing index came in at a reading of 3.09, which although it came ahead of the prior month’s reading of -1.19, it fell far short of the 5.00 consensus estimate. The shipments segment looks respectable for May at 14.94, but it’s still way ahead of new orders which are currently at 3.85 and even further ahead of backlog orders which have massively dropped to -11.46. The employment component and the 6-month outlook component are down and both point to a lack in consumer optimism. Pricing pressures for the month also stand out in the report, with input cost inflation still very subdued. The manufacturing sector continues to be a drag in the New York region, primarily hurt by weak exports. Ultimately, this is one more report to include in the arsenal of the Fed doves.

Next, on a broader scale, industrial production is stalling across the United States. In April, industrial production declined by 0.3% for the fifth consecutive monthly contraction. Factories are also cutting back on capacity utilization, down 4 tenths of a percent to 78.2%. The manufacturing component of industrial production has been flat to negative for all of 2015 so far, and in April, it remains unchanged. All of the aforementioned readings are at the low-end of economists’ expectations for the month. Among manufacturing subcomponents, output of consumer goods fell 0.3% with business goods down 0.4%. In a reminder of just how weak construction and housing have been, construction supplies rose by 0.1% for the best reading all year. April also continued the positive trend from March in the auto manufacturing segment, growing by 1.3% on top of the prior month’s surge of 4.3%. Mining and utilities were among the weakest components, hurt again by oil prices. All in all, the industrial economy remains flat and continues to hold down the alleged springtime bounce. This is just one more point in support of the Fed delaying the action of raising interest rates.

Last, but certainly not least, consumer confidence had been riding at high levels according to the Federal Reserve, but that is no longer the case half-way through May. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence index came in at a disappointing 88.6 which is nearly 5 points below the lowest economist estimate. Both components, current conditions and expectations, dropped over 7 points in the month to readings of 99.8 and 81.5, respectively. These are ultimately the lowest readings for both components since October and November of last year. At the same time that confidence is going down, inflation expectations are going up, primarily led higher by rising gas prices. Additionally, the drop in current conditions hints towards a softness in May’s jobs data, while the drop in expectations is a downgrade for the long-term outlook on employment. The hawks at the Fed have been hoping for a long-time that the rise in consumer confidence would equate to higher retails sales. Unfortunately for them, retails sales are now flat and consumer confidence is moving backwards.


 

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