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Afternoon Note

Confetti & A Rally

By WSS Research Team
4/15/2015 1:32 PM

The major equity indices are on the move. Up approximately 0.50%, the NASDAQ is trading above the 5,000-level while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 have advanced approximately 0.33% and 0.47%, respectively. There was a lot of excitement at the European Central Bank (ECB), and not from ECB President Mario Draghi announcing the successful progression of the ECB’s most recent stimulus program. A young protester of the ECB interrupted the meeting by climbing on top of the conference table and tossing confetti and flyers around. Protests have been building against the ECB since it built a $1.3 billion headquarter in March. Many citizens in the Eurozone have pinpointed their frustrations at the ECB which has slashed spending and raised taxes (sound familiar?). However, one of the important questions that needs to be asked is, where is the security? While it is important for protestors to be heard, the ability for an attendee to get so close to the ECB president is rather startling.

Domestically, we had plenty of economic data releases that are moving the market. Firstly, the Mortgage Bankers’ Association (MBA) and the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released contradictory reports on the housing market. Quite a reversal from the trends indicated earlier this month, the MBA’s composite mortgage index declined by 2.3% in the week ended April 10th after rising 0.4% the prior week. The most heartbreaking piece in the report was the decline in purchasing applications by 3.0% after showing gains of 0.5%, 0.6%, and then 0.7% in the past three consecutive weeks. However, due to this being a weekly survey, volatility is high and does not necessarily point to a strong change in direction. Year-over-year, the purchase index is up 7.0%. The refinance index improved slightly for the week, coming in at a reading of minus 2 versus a prior reading of minus 3. With mortgage interest rates for conforming loans ($417,000 or less) remaining low at 3.87%, we could see more consumers refinancing their homes.

The NAHB released an overall more positive report on the direction of the housing market, reinforcing the notion that spring will see higher buyer traffic. For the month of April, the Housing Market Index advanced 4 points to 56. Present sales climbed to 61 from 58 in March while buyer traffic rose to 41 from 37 in March. This bodes well for our homebuilders who are displaying great optimism for the future; the expectations component is currently at 64. The South continues to see the largest growth in housing starts with the West following close behind and the North East bringing up the rear.

While the Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a good indicator how the US manifesting sector is performing, the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report released by the Fed gives a more thorough analysis of the nation’s industrial production. For the month of March, industrial production slipped 0.6% after gaining 0.1% in February. When looking at the first quarter of 2015 as a whole, production fell by an annual rate of 1.0%, representing the first quarterly decline since Q2-2009. Naturally, the disruption in oil and gas drilling had a negative impact on the industry. However, the production of durable goods improved 0.2% thanks to a rebound in the production of motor vehicles and parts. Also, capacity utilization fell to 78.4 from a downwardly revised 78.7 (from 78.9) the prior month. Looking at the data, the Fed most likely will choose to continue postponing any potential rate hikes.

Later today, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book which will permit us to take a deeper look into the economic standings of the Fed districts.


Comments
"... pinpointed their frustrations at the ECB which has slashed spending and raised taxes..."

Please tell me how a central bank can raise taxes. I don't understand.

Spence Arnold on 4/15/2015 2:41:14 PM
 

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