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Afternoon Note

Reverse, Reverse

By Dominique Paul, Research Analyst
3/27/2015 1:22 PM

The economy growing at a lower than expected rate initially turned the major equity indices south. However, the market has been struggling to remain in the green, reversing between the lows and highs with great volatility. Greece is continuing talks with the European Central Bank (ECB) in an effort to work out a bailout plan. Also, the price of oil declined slightly, as fears in the Middle East settled down. There were a few domestic economic data releases today.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released two economic releases this morning. First, the gross domestic product (GDP) report showed that the third and final growth estimate for Q4-2014 read +2.2%, which was slightly below consensus estimates for 2.4% growth and the advance estimate of 2.6%. The economy saw strong exports and higher personal consumption expenditures. With job growth, personal consumption expenditures may continue to be a big piece in GDP growth in Q1-2015, however, the stronger US dollar should diminish the value of exports and increase importing activity.

The second report released, the BEA was the corporations’ profits report. During Q4-2014, profits were $1.838 trillion after coming in at $1.895 trillion in Q3-2014. On an annual basis, profits rose 2.9% after increasing 5.1% in the previous period. Coupled with February’s durable goods report, it’s easy to see why companies aren’t stepping up to the plate and making the investments that would drive the economy higher. We need to see less regulations restricting and heavily taxing these businesses.

Later this morning, the University of Michigan released its final reading on consumer sentiment for the month of March. During the month, the consumer sentiment index fell to 93.0 from 95.4 in February. However, the final reading is an improvement from the mid-month reading of 91.2. The current conditions component rose to 105.0 from a mid-month reading of 103.0 which should result in higher consumer activity, such as spending. The expectations component rose to 85.3 from a mid-month reading of 83.7 as consumers are more optimistic about obtaining jobs in the future.


 

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