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Morning Commentary

Pros and Cons of Strong Dollar

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
3/13/2015 7:19 AM

We've spent a lot of time whining about the strong dollar's impact on the stock market, but the other side of the equation is the positive impact for American consumers and travelers.

Yes, it does mean a massive trade deficit as imports surge and exports plateau. The U.S. Non-Oil Trade used to be at parity in 1995, and now it is out of control. It is all the cheap stuff from different parts of the world that make middle-class Americans feel wealthy. It evens the score a little, with cash flowing out of this country into other countries, while we get our big screen televisions and new Nike sneakers.

About 15% of U.S. household spending is tied to imports, including 27% of furniture, cars, and almost 35% of clothing.

So, it makes you wonder if it is better for the nation to have a strong dollar, even as large corporations complain about its impact on sales and earnings; and as our trade deficit with the world swells. Here's the rub: the dollar has only spiked like this five times since 1970, and the most recent was in 1985. Each time, the stock market was able to acclimate and rally higher.

The bottom line is currency moves around a lot. More so with all the money printing and the race to the bottom. However, one day, the U.S. dollar will reflect the nation, which means it will fade from current levels. Until then, remember this story.

It wasn't that long ago that we lamented the thrashing of the U.S. dollar, which tumbled on a sketchy U.S. economy and the Fed monetary policy.

The crowning moment of our humiliation came when Brazilian model Gisele announced that she would only take Euros.

Back then, you could get $1.45 for one Euro, and for a few months, we were thinking about beauty and brains.

Now, it looks like Gisele is down 27%. Upon further review, what is the moral of the story: Never bet against America or never take financial advice from a sex symbol?

Today’s Session

Wow, the deflation narrative won't go away. After posting a -0.8% read last month, the street was looking for the Producer Price Index at 0.3% for February. Turns out -0.5% is the number and it’s really problematic.

Immediately, analyst and economists began sharpening their pencils and making excuses for being so wrong. I'll say this puts more pressure on the Fed to hold the line on rates. I wish it didn't, but in fact it should as deflation is a monster that this Fed and administration have no clue how to handle. Of course the administration might want this kind of turmoil into the 2016 election knowing promises of lifelines and goodies are often embraced more than the notion of painful solutions.

We've had a seesaw week of triple digit moves on the Dow, but maybe we go out with a whimper.  Futures are pointed down, so an up session would resonate beyond today.


Comments
Nothing stays the same. 1.5 years ago all of my business sales were going out of the US, mostly to SE Asia. then the USA began buying for about a year, now inquiries from Europe in the non Euro countries and nothing from the US. All of my USA receivables are behind by at least two months. Fortunately I live in the Euro zone and the strength of the dollar helps with the day to day expenses. Really only time will tell with any of this, so for now I watch and am thankful I am in both worlds. The cup is half full.

David Huber on 3/13/2015 10:01:47 AM
Charles, I think Gisele will get by OK, as long as Tom Brady is paid in U.S. Dollars.

Dick on 3/13/2015 10:40:30 AM
QUOTE OF A LIFETIME!
"Never bet against America or never take financial advice from a sex symbol." Both make a plausible moral answer.

morris brill on 3/13/2015 1:48:52 PM
Just two percent increase in interest rates and our 22 TRILLION+ debt will force major cuts in all forms of subsistence! This too will not end well!

Joe on 3/14/2015 1:10:00 PM
 

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