Morning Commentary
The market opened lower and never had a chance. The 332-point drubbing of the Dow was orderly and, save for a couple of half-hearted rebound attempts, it was selling triggering even more selling. However, the session was more about a buyers' strike than a mad dash for the exits. Still, the notion that the train is leaving the station has been replaced with a relaxed sense that buyers can pick their spots.
The Real Deal
The confusing world of economic interpretations and assumptions is what makes the markets. To make matters worse, good news is bad news, and bad news is good news. Thus, the narrative: ‘the United States economy is so strong, it needs to be slowed down by an interest rate hike’ which is just absurd.
The Fed wants 2% inflation, even though in the past year, wages are only up 1.6%.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report saw a minor increase in people quitting their jobs, but not the mass exodus that signals confidence that makes the Fed confident they have finally gotten the virtuous cycle underway. Moreover, the number of hires actually took a sharp decline.
In addition to the wage-less recovery, there are wide swathes of the population who are not working, including 31% of the unemployed who have been in that predicament for more than 27 weeks- twice the pre-recession level.
Speaking of lost enthusiasm, it is hard to find it these days on Main Street or Wall Street. Enthusiasm is fading quickly on Main Street seen here from the Gallup daily tracking poll.
Again, enthusiasm is fading quickly on Wall Street. It can also be seen here from a StockTwits poll.
In the end, yesterday was an ugly session, but not one that dashed enthusiasm...because there was not a lot of enthusiasm to begin with.
Today’s Session
There's some early relief this morning, not enough for me to take the bait, but we know the best trading technique of 2014 was buying the dip. The V-shaped rebound made a lot of money, so let's see if there's a sense of urgency or if smart money wants to buy a little lower.
Fundamental reasons for owning certain stocks remain intact. Questions about the strong dollar are valid to a point - great businesses are still great businesses driven by demand for products and services. The stock market is another beast all together, driven by more and more investors that loathe being down on paper thinking they can game the system and pick tops and bottoms. The irony of their fairytale world is the volatility they profess to despise is the result of their immaturity or lack of knowledge regarding history.
Comments |
The drop in enthusiasm is disconcerting and disturbing. I am nearly 70...my time horizon is getting much shorter. I am fortunate to have a moderate degree of wealth. I am so disappointed to see all of the amazing opportunities that the current Administration has let pass us by. I truly believe this President has brought the entire global community to a condition of near deflation. Losing enthusiasm is much like losing hope. I have always believed in the mantra "never give up"; and it has never failed me. It encourages me to increase and maintain enthusiasm. The market reactions are like golf - 90% of your perception/skill is located between the ears! Mike on 3/11/2015 10:50:54 AM |
News outlets keep harping on bailout of Banks! My experience is that these "bailout" were in fact loans. Government got preferred stock and paid 5% interest for first 5 yrs then went to 9%. I bet government made a profit on these loans overall; was not a gift. News outlets make it sound as if it was a gift. CD Beeson on 3/11/2015 12:22:09 PM |
Tweet |
4/19/2024 9:35 AM | DON’T OVERREACT |
4/18/2024 1:37 PM | Didn’t Break Down |
4/18/2024 9:40 AM | MARKET OFF SCRIPT |
4/17/2024 1:59 PM | Facing Pressure |
4/17/2024 9:37 AM | POWELL STILL WANTS TO HELP |
4/16/2024 1:35 PM | Muted |
4/16/2024 9:42 AM | FEAR ARRIVES |
4/15/2024 1:17 PM | Making a Statement |
4/15/2024 9:45 AM | Equal Opportunity Drubbing |
4/12/2024 1:37 PM | Pressure Overall |
4/12/2024 9:42 AM | WHO YA GONNA CALL? |
4/11/2024 1:38 PM | No Urgency |
4/11/2024 9:27 AM | Tough Sledding |
4/10/2024 1:22 PM | Hang In There |
4/10/2024 9:51 AM | HERE COMES THE LATEST RATIONALE FOR PERSISTENT INFLATION |
4/9/2024 1:56 PM | Fighting the Trend |
4/9/2024 9:46 AM | NEXT TIME, MAKE IT A HOLIDAY |
4/8/2024 9:45 PM | Cautious Feel |
4/8/2024 7:19 AM | IT’S ECLIPSE DAY |
4/5/2024 1:51 PM | Higher and Cheaper |
4/5/2024 9:23 AM | MARKETS REEL ON BIDEN’S ISRAEL ULTIMATUM |
4/4/2024 1:42 PM | Stocks Bounce |
4/4/2024 9:31 AM | ESCAPING GRAVITY = ESCAPING REALITY? |
4/3/2024 1:41 PM | Cuts Not Soon |
4/3/2024 9:33 AM | A LITTLE LESS SWAGGER |
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