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Morning Commentary

What's Eating Main Street?

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
2/26/2015 5:49 AM

I want to revisit the news and a few things that were lost in all the Fed hoopla earlier this week. The Consumer Confidence measured by the conference board missed consensus estimates, but the devilish details are even more worrisome. It is getting harder to find jobs and those who seek jobs will find the difficulty increased significantly in the future.

Consumer Confidence

January

February

Present

113.9

110.2

Expectations

97

87.2

Jobs Plentiful

20.7

20.5

Jobs Hard

24.6

26.2

More Future Jobs

13.4

17.3

 

The news mirror what we've seen recently in Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index, which has been on a tear since August. Last week, it slipped back into negative territory.

Something is bugging Main Street, and without a doubt, it revolves around jobs, wages, and the policies out of Washington, D.C.

The Market

Surprisingly, nothing's bothering investors, not even the lackluster volume that's gotten even thinner as of late.

Volume on the NASDAQ is even more alarming from a purist's point of view. In fact, the only spikes in volume have come during periods of distress. I get that volume has been a characteristic of this rally since 2009. However, I would like to see it as a stronger sign of confidence in the rally as we breakout to new highs.

Let's call it a yellow flag. It isn’t enough to sell, but it does mean hiccups will lead to exaggerated moves to the downside... it’s something to keep in mind.

Today’s Session

Initial jobless claims jumped in the week ended February 21st to 313,000, surpassing the consensus estimate of 290,000 and the downwardly revised reading of 282,000 (from 283,000) for the prior week. The 4-week rolling average increased by 11,500 to 294,500 claims, which reiterates the notion that it’s getting harder to find jobs. Continuing claims, which lag by a week, fell by 21,000 to 2.401 million, with its 4-week average increasing by 2,000 to 2.399 million. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate for insured workers remains at 1.8%. The disappointing figures lead us to believe that the February employment situation report may not be as positive as originally anticipated.

Below are some notable companies that reported earnings results this morning.

Company

EPS

Cons.

Revenue ($M)

EPS Guidance FY15

EPS Consensus FY15

DDD

0.21

0.25

$187

0.90-1.10

1.02

CYBX

0.59

0.57

$72

2.33-2.39

2.37

HEES

0.47

0.44

$298

-

1.75

KSS

1.83

1.80

$6,337

FY16 4.40-4.60

FY16 4.55

SHLD

-0.34

-1.78

$8,099

-

-10.07

TASR

0.09

0.11

$47

-

0.47


Comments
I just don't see utility of surveys as it seems it today's world they are too often manipulated to support a political agenda and thus are not reliable. Too me confidence is expressed by purchase of large ticket items, homes, and vacations. As there is no economic recovery in traditional sense, there is no wage growth and the inflation of higher food and healthcare costs is very real. There is also the hidden economic cost of government regulation, resulting higher expenses for light bulbs, home appliances, heating costs, etc.I don't see why any thinking person should be surprised at poor economic results or lack of true optimism by the working class.The higher stock market may fatten 401ks, but that money is not available. And the spending habits of the one per-centers cant prop up an entire economy.

Al on 2/26/2015 11:28:39 AM
Mainstreet gets that the Fed works for the 1% and no one else. Tax laws are written for the 1%, Foundations, tax shelters, etc. are for the 1%. The rest of us have to try to make it on 1/4th of what we earn - the rest is going to some form of tax, local, state, federal, or a pass though tax due to regulation costs.

Steve on 2/26/2015 11:36:58 AM
Rudy Giuliani should be applauded (instead of excoriated) for his recent statement that our President doesn't love his country -- there have been so many examples of this since he came to power and Giuliani is the first to "call it like it is" -- thank you, Rudy, you speak for many, I believe, besides yourself

Dick Denecker on 2/26/2015 1:33:17 PM
Charles, have you noticed, even the
Germans are beginning to talk seriously
about what a mistake the EU was?
You will never get 19 nations to agree
on anything, they are right.

tom wayne on 2/26/2015 3:08:27 PM
Market is way too high a BIG correction is coming soon!

Joe Caymin on 2/28/2015 1:41:30 AM
 

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