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Morning Commentary

It's Witchcraft

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
2/25/2015 6:20 AM

Those fingers in my hair
That sly come-hither stare
That strips my conscience bare
It's witchcraft

And I've got no defense for it
The heat is too intense for it
What good would common sense for it do?

-Frank Sinatra

The Frank Sinatra standard could have been the theme for yesterday's session where stocks hung on every word from the Fed Chairman. For many, the sway Janet Yellen has over the market is akin to witchcraft and there is no defense for it, but then again, the rub is that too few want that come-hither to be broken. Of course, one day, the Fed will raise rates and they will begin to slow. Their cooked up books will not be able to help them when it is clear they are behind the eight-ball and the hikes will become disorderly.

However, there is much more to the market and investing in stocks. The issue is, there is a large pool of money that only takes its cue from money printing. That crowd is not the individual investor blamed from all the market crashes in history.

Legend has it that once Main Street gets in the game, cicadas wake from century-long slumbers and pestilence wipes out wide swathes of the population.

Yet, the individual has missed this rodeo and the bad investors have turned out to be the smartest guys and gals in the room.

This amazing underperformance puts in one’s head the notion that it is the little guy who is dumb and should be the contrarian, indicted for getting in and out of the stock market. Moreover, the fact is the little guy has gotten out by $600 billion as measured by mutual funds and ETFs, while institutions (insurance companies, big business, colleges, and municipalities) poured in the same exact amount.  That institutional money typically stays the course and it has been rewarded handsomely.

Those hedge funds on the other hand keep underperforming this amazing rally.

It is nuts to think about the folks watching from afar that have fared better in the market than the experts.

Oddly, this helps my bull case. These funds have to make good and this next leg is a chance to get in the game, making part of the ride self-fulfilling.

Here's the problem for all investors...money is moving around too quickly as the average holding period for stock has nosed dived from 12 years in 1940, to less than a year today. Moreover, it is too much trading in an effort to beat the market on a daily basis.

Today’s Session

Earnings beats at Target and Lowe's continue to fuel the debate over how much of consumer’s spending is a reflection of real economic growth versus how much of it is a transfer of funds from filling the gas tank to sprucing up the living room. Guidance is not great which adds confusion to the said debate, yet, shares of both names are holding higher pre-open.

Making new all-time highs might not mean Dow 18,000 hats and confetti, but there is increased anxiety and wonder on how we get higher from here.

Company

EPS

Cons.

Revenue ($M)

EPS Guidance FY15

EPS Consensus FY15

CPB

0.66

0.65

$2,234

2.32-2.38

2.35

CHK

0.11

0.24

$5,050

-

0.49

DLTR

1.16

1.14

$2,476

Q1 0.69-0.74

Q1 0.76

LOW

0.46

0.43

$12,540

FY16 ~ 3.29

FY16 3.26

LL

0.64

0.77

$272

2.50-3.00

2.98

SODA

0.35

0.22

$127

-

1.23

TGT

1.50

1.46

$21,751

Q1 0.95-1.05

Q1 1.05


Comments
It's witchcraft....and Janet Yellen's the witch.

Tim Irving on 2/25/2015 10:10:16 AM
The Bloomberg chart on the average holding period for stocks is a commentary in itself on reasons why people in invest and the impact of changing social and family values. The peaks in 1960 and 1972 coincided with the introduction of the Pill and the legalization of abortion. Social and family values have gone downhill from there. People used to invest to build a fund for retirement and to leave for their children. Now they do it to "make a killing." It's interesting that Buffett launched his long career around 1950 when the old values prevailed. Since then the principles of Graham-Dodd have been replaced by 15,000 pages of regulation flowing from Dodd-Frank and they haven't even finished writing them yet.

Denniis Howard on 2/25/2015 10:55:38 AM
Charles,so is this article saying the market is built on sand and a potential sinkhole get ready to bail to avoid a tsunami correction or have rate hikes already been factored into current pricing. A retiree, my horizon is short and do not want to risk getting killed.

Thank you

Charles Payne on 2/25/2015 1:39:46 PM
 

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