Wall Street Strategies
Hello! Sign in or Register


Morning Commentary

The Achilles Load

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
2/18/2015 6:34 AM

Once known for its determination in war as told in the Iliad, Greece is fighting a battle in which it will lose, no matter the outcome.

The country has used every trick in the bag from demanding reparations for Nazi atrocities, to saying it refuses to be a colony to the continent and Germany. The fact of the matter is, Greece allowed itself to become a vassal state long ago.

The bottom line is the country has proven Margaret Thatcher right and now that they have run out of their money (and other people's money), the question is, what comes next?

The sums are hard to wrap your arms around; the Greek government has more than 315 billion Euros in general debt.

The country has already taken some serious hits via austerity measures needed for a series of bailouts. Now, it is saying no more.

The thing is, a lot of countries had to swallow their pride and make sacrifices for bailouts, including Ireland and Portugal, which may explain why both nations are continuing to play hardball, right up there with Germany.

Both countries lived up to their obligations for bailouts and now unemployment is turning lower, and Ireland even issued a tax cut in its 2015 budget.

 

In fact, Greece is far less relevant than seven years ago, underscored by the vast gap between their bond yields and other potential "dominoes." I suspect it is inevitable that Greece has to go on its own as they are simply in too deep. But right now, the market wants to simply sweep it under a rug, and focus on the next big debt crisis… ours.

Ten Year Yields

Greece

10.36

Portugal

2.38

Spain

1.41

Ireland

1.20

United States

2.14

Today’s Session

This could be a sloppy session, at least until we get a chance to chew through oil inventory data, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and the latest out from the Greece debt talks.

Earnings were mostly pretty good with restaurant stocks Jack in the Box and Pot Belly posting solid numbers. Jack in the Box’s Qdoba unit was on fire: same store sales +14% from 2.3% a year ago and even the burger business +4.4% from +1.9%.

Looking at Pot Belly, same store sales +3.7% from +0.7% for the quarter, while full year only up 0.1% tells me people are spending that cheap gas money on food and experiences.

Below are some notable companies that reported earnings yesterday afternoon and this morning.

Date

Company

EPS

Cons.

Revenue ($M)

EPS Guidance

EPS Consensus

17-Feb

CF

4.82

5.03

$1,217

-

FY15 21.48

17-Feb

FOSL

3.00

3.07

$1,065

FY15 5.45 -6.05

FY15 7.56

17-Feb

RAIL

0.39

0.46

$213

-

FY15 2.21

17-Feb

JACK

0.93

0.87

$469

FY15 2.85 -2.97

FY15 2.84

17-Feb

PBPB

0.06

0.03

$84

FY15 0.264

FY15 0.25

18-Feb

ANGI

0.26

0.21

$82

-

FY15 -0.02

18-Feb

GRMN

0.77

0.79

$803

FY15 3.10

FY15 3.24

18-Feb

YNDX

12.28

12.85

$14,667

-

FY15 44.60

One thing for sure, gas savings are not enough to move the needle on housing- of course we knew that, but the 2% decline in starts is unnerving.

Even more startling is the single family pace of 678,000 down from 727,000 in December while multi-family continues to surge finishing January at 381,000 from 340,000 in the prior month and 306,000 year ago.

It all boils down to millennials just not able or willing to move into new homes.


Comments
Greece has run out of others people money. The Greek government is unable to levy taxes because the Greeks pay cash. I understand that credit cards are not welcome. I guess there are 3 accounting practices: the owner true accounting, the accounting for the government, and the accounting used for selling the business. This kind of accounting is common in third world.
This brings the point, is Greece a European country, Greece was part of the Ottoman Empire until 1908. Are they still somewhat part of the Middle East?? Financially sound like they are! Corruption is king is many third world nations.


ousaou on 2/18/2015 9:49:36 PM
 

Log In To Add Your Comment


Home | Products & Services | Education | In The Media | Help | About Us |
Disclaimer | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use |
All Rights Reserved.

 

×