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Morning Commentary

Against the Politically Correct

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
2/12/2015 7:01 AM

There are differences between investing for 5 years versus 20 years, and investing with or against the Politically Correct (PC) crowd.

Last night, Whole Foods, or “whole paycheck,” posted great earnings that saw revenue climb 10% to $4.7 billion, a new record high for the company. However, looking more closely, the same-store sales, which came in at 4.5%, were up from 3.1% in the fourth quarter and thus far are up 4.9% in the current quarter. There is no doubt that the clean food/organic/healthy eating craze is gaining momentum; part of the lifestyle is a focus on foods that do not contain any Genetically Modified Organism or GMOs.

Apparently, there are up to 24,500 items that qualify for the non-GMO label. The list keeps growing, as it is now an $8.5 billion industry growing four times faster than gluten-free.

However, on the other end of the spectrum is the GMO market, which is gigantic.  It is led by Monsanto, which has been demonized as the purveyor of Franken-food. The company's products provide virus-resistant cassava and water efficient maize for Africa. It's even leading the world in an effort to save the honeybee. Despite the hate for Monsanto and the love for clean eating, since March 2000, it has been no contest, which has been the better investment.

Since March 2005

Monsanto

+281%

Wholefoods

+108%

 
 If those numbers surprise you, look at how great beverage stocks and tobacco stocks have fared over the past five years.

It makes you wonder, when policymakers levy huge taxes on so-called sins, if they really think it will stop people who are addicted to things, such as sugar and cigarettes, or if they know it will flood the coffers. I think they say one thing, but love the cash that pours in often from the poorest Americans whose vote they fleeced in the first place.

Moreover, it’s all food for thought as we often use our heart when investing. If the goal is making money, we should use our brains too.

This is an important lesson because 2015 should be more volatile, and even if it's not, a half a percent move these days equals a triple digit move on the Dow giving the illusion of confusion and anxiety that might not be the case. But perception is reality, at least on a short term basis- for investors true really is revealed over a period of time.

Today's Session

Stocks look great early this morning on geopolitical news, but not the news we thought last night. No deal has been reached in Greece, but a surprised ceasefire between Russia (and their separatist’s proxies) and Ukraine is giving our equity market a boost. While it would be nice to think President Obama's desire to arm Ukraine was the driving factor, it was good old fashioned negotiation and leadership. With Angela Merkel driving the deal, a 16 hour session finally saw a breakthrough that will include a full prison exchange and pullback of heavy weapons.

It wouldn't shock anyone is the Minsk deal falls through as there are border issues still unresolved, but for the people in the region (5,300 have died) and the world it’s a nice Valentine's gift.

Below are some of the notable companies that reported earnings yesterday afternoon and morning.

Date

Company

EPS

Cons

Revenue ($M)

EPS Guidance

EPS Consensus

Feb-11

BIDU

1.61

1.68

$2,264

-

 

Feb-11

CAKE

0.48

0.60

$499.7

FY15 2.08-2.20

FY15  2.42

Feb-11

WFM

0.46

0.45

$4,671

-

 

Feb-12

HERO

-0.23

-0.31

$178.70

-

 

Feb-12

LPNT

1.08

1.00

1,483.7

FY15 3.75-4.14

FY15 3.79

Feb-12

WWAV

0.24

0.27

$911

FY15 0.17-0.19

FY15 0.24

*WSS Holds in its Portfolio

Equity futures initially pulled back after retail sales came up, well, short of consensus for the second straight month. What the heck is going on? What happened to all that extra cash from cheap oil? I said a couple months ago there wasn't necessarily going to be a direct infusion of cash into the economy - which is a misnomer anyway. Money spent on gasoline is part of "the economy."

In fact, combing through the report, there are signs that money is being spent in other parts of the economy. But, the headline at -0.8 and ex-auto at -0.9 are worrisome and belies the great news on jobs and higher confidence readings.

Retail Sales January 2015

Building

+6.9%

Sporting Goods

+8.0%

Food & Drink Places

+11.3%

Furniture

+5.5%

Health & Personal Care

+6.6%

Non-Store Retailers

+8.3%

Gasoline Stations

-23.5%

 Coming out of Foxhole

The first month of 2015 saw an indecisive market that tripped over disappointing economic data and lackluster corporate earnings. The financials really came up short and energy tumbled with freefalling crude oil. The only two sectors higher were healthcare and utilities which have been amazingly resilient.

Face it, strength in utilities reflects investors angst- it's the next step before going to all-cash. We'll maybe that's all changing now as utilities were off 4.5% coming into today's session as technology began to find buyers.

DOW JONES UTIL AVERAGE NDX


 

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