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Question of the Week

What do you believe would be your reaction to receiving a windfall? Would you squander your temporary riches, or invest? We would love to hear your thoughts.
Post your answer below.

Morning Commentary

Get On Your High Horse

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
2/9/2015 7:24 AM

“And lest we get on our high horse and think this is unique to some other place, remember that during the Crusades and the Inquisition, people committed terrible deeds in the name of Christ. In our home country, slavery and Jim Crow all too often was justified in the name of Christ.”

In a rebuke to the notion that all Islam is radical or built on a foundation of evil conquest, President Obama threw Christianity, Europeans and America under the bus.

It is not the first time, but it wasn't as veiled as normal and in fact it points to what the next two years are shaping up to be.

The verbal hits to success, to achievement, and to the ideas that made America great will become louder and more direct. Economic ideas with no hope of passing will be more to push an ideology from the world's biggest soapbox.

As the economy gradually improves, which it is designed to do no matter who is in office, there continues to be an emptiness to it all. It's the result of an unrelenting attack that says you are a bad person if you have too much, can afford to send your children to college, want to make a lot of money and think America is the greatest nation in the world.

If you want to see this economy take off...more Americans need to get on their high horse.

The Economy

For a long time, I have scratched my head at the message of free falling yields as either a harbinger of our economy, or just the most attractive place for large pools of money to hang out.

But, if America has escaped the “deflation scare,” then are we now waiting for the “inflation scare”?

Remember the goal of the Federal Reserve is pump up the volume...get inflation out there, and while it sounds harsh, who doesn't like it when their paycheck inflates, their 401K inflates and the value of their home inflates?

The problem is that not enough people own stocks or homes or receive paychecks, so there is a long way to go to illicit a wealth effect.

But there is inflation, and it is not recognized by the government which says we'll be below 2% for the rest of the year (see CPI chart).

In the meantime, any mother can invite the government to breakfast to show them what inflation looks like...

 Toast is down, but everyone in the house is on the Atkin's diet anyway.

Yes, wages are finally improving, which was inevitable, though with a couple of caveats. Some minimum wage increases took effect, and December was a surprising decline.

From here on out, wages will have to impress the market and economic data will have to be better-than-expected, even if it means the Fed might move sooner rather than later.

Today’s Session

Equity futures were under pressure all morning long, largely from more saber rattling in Greece which is edging toward the absurd. Apparently, the Greeks are saying there should be reparations for the atrocities committed by the Nazis and it's ready to play hardball on its hundreds of billions of Euros in debt.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is taking an early victory lap, saying 2015 will see global demand increase. The new estimate is 29.2 million barrels a day, +430,000 from a month earlier, but non-OPEC supply will drop significantly to 850,000- that's 420,000 less than the month ago estimate. That number reflects swift action by American shale producers- the goal of Saudi Arabia the entire time.

The market is listlessly looking for a spark while it digest that jobs report which should have helped major indices break key resistance, but was thwarted by the shenanigans in Greece.

Below are some of the major companies that reported this morning.

Date

Company

EPS

Cons.

Revenue ($M)

EPS Guidance

EPS Consensus

9-Feb

CYOU

0.25

0.29

$216

-

FY15 1.94

9-Feb

HAS

1.22

1.24

$1,300

-

FY15 3.49

9-Feb

L

0.57

0.53

$3,521

-

FY15 3.15

9-Feb

MAS

0.24

0.20

$2,075

-

FY15 1.27

9-Feb

SOHU

-0.36

-0.24

$477

Q1 (1.05)-(0.95)

Q1 (0.64)


Comments
definitely invest a windfall - I have a disablabled son and need to build a nest egg for his future.

Joe Brown on 2/9/2015 10:17:32 AM
I would invest it all in great companies that have increased dividends for at least 25 years.I would spend all the income but never touch the capital.Drink all the milk you want but leave the cow alone.

Larry Wright on 2/9/2015 10:23:54 AM
Lets not forget the effect government has on the increase in wages everyone is celebrating. The federal civilian and military pay increase in January was 1%. Over 4 million people received that increase.

Steve on 2/9/2015 10:35:31 AM
Well Charles if I got that lucky. Pay off mortgage invest the rest. By the way u rock. Watch u every evening.

elio bruno on 2/9/2015 10:39:04 AM
Larry W
Even cows get sick occasionally and sometimes die. You need to keep tabs on the health of the cow or you could loose the farm.

Steve on 2/9/2015 10:39:30 AM
I would first reduceany debt I had and then invest most of it but would leave some out to enjoy 5% OR SO.

L J Mutch on 2/9/2015 10:52:38 AM
Charles,
Keep up your great work. A large windfall at my age (71) would be set up in a trust so I could distribute the money over a period of time to agencies/people who need help. I am too old to learn how to be a "rich person" with their toys.

Patrick Burke on 2/9/2015 10:55:29 AM
I would invest in rentals, i.e. condos/apartments, townhouses for future income potentials. In fact, my daughter already bought 3 apartments in Madrid, 1 condo in Colorado...working on her plan to retire at age 50...she just turned 45 today!

karin on 2/9/2015 11:27:11 AM
Charles,
Great show,love it!!!

Invest invest invest. Then set up trust for kids an grandkids. They can get their "trust money" after they have been gainfully employed for at least 10 years

Chuck Burns on 2/9/2015 11:36:10 AM
Invest.

Don K Lewis on 2/9/2015 11:45:04 AM
With a windfall, I would pay off high
interest rate credit cards first, then
I would let some smarter than I,
invest the rest. Our president will
always find a way to take any extra
money away from us,the Robin Hood Theory abounds in Washington....

tom wayne on 2/9/2015 11:58:39 AM
I would definitely invest it, at least the 40% the government didn't take.

Bob Walsh on 2/9/2015 12:37:56 PM
Would subscribe to hotline

alex topar on 2/9/2015 1:33:29 PM
If I won a windfall, hey, I would buy a 120''HD television . just so I could watch you without my glasses.
I enjoy your show very much watch each evening.
Keep up the good work

tbell on 2/9/2015 1:40:28 PM
Without question I would invest the money, but not in the US. A country built on capitalism that is stupid enough to elect socialists is not deserving of my money and would probably confiscate it in the end, (in the name of fairness, no doubt).

Arthur Carlson on 2/9/2015 2:00:45 PM
Charles, and everyone who wants to know the truth about the history of Islam: Dr. Bill Warner on Islam: Why We Are Afraid, a 1,400 Year Secret (44:42, or 44:50 version) Search on YouTube for the lessons of history !!! BHO's narrative is totally false as usual, enjoy the video. Islam has been radical since it's founding, you will learn... Thanks, Jim

James Buckley on 2/9/2015 2:47:59 PM
I'd give 1/3 to Charles to invest, 1/3 to a local financial advisor I trust, and keep 1/3 in cash. Maybe money can't buy happiness, but I wouldn't mind finding out for myself.

Mike on 2/9/2015 2:55:04 PM
I'd get someone who understands finance much more than I do to manage it with investments, a modest allowance for my living expenses, and appropriate percentages to charity, after securing my son's requirements.

Patricia Flynn on 2/9/2015 3:29:35 PM
I would have someone who knows a lot more than I do about finance manage it with investments, an allowance for my living expenses, and appropriate donations to charities after securing my son's requirements.

Patricia Flynn on 2/9/2015 3:38:35 PM
I had a modest inheritance and with that I paid off our home and ranch. Moderate improvements to the house, roof, bathroom etc. Gift of 10 thousand to each of my 3 children. Gift to charity and the rest went into my stock account. I have followed a number of Charle's suggestions and have done well. No debt or payments. Feeling good.

Rita on 2/9/2015 4:53:53 PM
A brief word on islam and slavery: in the Sudan, islamics from the north have been raiding black African villages in the south for decades, killing and taking slaves. They have essentially killed or driven out all the Christians who have retreated to Ethiopia. The fairly recent kidnapping of about 300 Christian school girls in Nigeria is the most heinous act imaginable and our president barely referenced it. Taking out Boko Haram would have made a lot more sense than Qaddafi who had been behaving for ore than two decades.

paul meyerhoff on 2/9/2015 5:38:15 PM
Charles, oil producers never cut production due to prices no matter what the price. They only quit drilling.

Wayne Phelan on 2/10/2015 8:24:14 AM
AFTER TAXES (would meet with my CPA). I would spend 10% on a new car/boat/computer, and invest the rest

Mike T. on 2/10/2015 8:29:43 AM
What a wonderful thing to happen. I would buy property and land hard assets. I would set up trusts for grandchildren to receive at age twenty five so hopefully they were sensible by then. I would need serious advice about the stock market would worry about losing everything.

f on 2/10/2015 12:38:01 PM
invest with your advice, make sure family is set, balance in trust for helping those that really are needy, not those who are greedy, lazy, immoral.

doug a on 2/11/2015 11:06:27 AM
I would invest the entire amount and spend 50% of any returns.

Werner D on 2/11/2015 11:30:02 AM
Unfortunately I did receive a windfall this past fall of $50,000 when my wife passed from her battle with cancer. I am 62 years old and disabled and I just put it all in a standard savings acct. at the low rate of .25%. That is my retirement fund now and I know I should invest it better but am afraid to put it at risk. I would gladly give it all back to get her back.


Randy J. on 2/12/2015 2:14:33 PM
Give uncle sam his due. Pay off debt. Invest the rest in your recommendations.

Frank on 2/12/2015 3:21:09 PM
 

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