Most of Wall Street is back to work today following yesterday’s blizzard, but market clarity remains something to be desired. After making a few wild swings this morning, it’s apparent that market isn’t sure what to expect in advance of the release of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) minutes, which will potentially give an update on the timeline of interest rate changes. In contrast to yesterday’s wild drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average due to earnings, today the index is being lifted thanks to positive earnings from Boeing (BA) and AT&T (T). The NASDAQ is also getting a big lift thanks to its largest component, Apple (AAPL), releasing positive earnings after the close yesterday. The global economy appears to be awaiting the Fed’s decision this afternoon as well. Economic data was light this morning, though there were a few noteworthy items.

Firstly, the level of mortgage applications fell flat for the week ended January 23^rd. The number of applications for home purchases dropped by 0.1%; this resulted in a year-over-year rate of +1.0%. Applications for home refinancing dropped by 5.0% week-over-week after jumping by 22.0% in the week before. Mortgage rates continue to remain low, but did edge up slightly higher for the week by 3 basis points. The new rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is now 3.83% for conforming balances (i.e. $417,000 or less). We note that the week-over-week numbers will likely decline again next week since severe winter weather in much of the Eastern US likely meant less individuals closing on properties or visiting banks to refinance.

Lastly, the weekly petroleum inventories report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted that crude oil inventories jumped, yet again, for the third week in a row. Refineries are slowing production, but in turn, are contributing to large oil inventory builds. Oil inventories jumped by 8.9 million barrels to a total of 406.7 million barrels – this is the highest level of commercial oil inventories in 80 years. Below is a chart of the various oil inventory builds and draws since the end of 2012.