Wall Street Strategies
Hello! Sign in or Register


Afternoon Note

A Stimulus-Induced Global Rally

By Jennifer Coombs, Research Analyst
1/22/2015 1:46 PM

After taking a dip into the red during the earlier part of the session, the major equity indices have reversed nicely to the upside with the Dow having experienced a triple-digit gain by noon. The market driver “du jour” came from Europe as the continent’s Central Bank (ECB) announced that it would leave interest rates unchanged in addition to coordinating asset purchases and expanding its stimulus program. Much of the world markets rallied on the news, although many investors wonder if this will be 2012 all over again. Energy prices gave the market little relief as weekly inventory numbers were released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). For the week ended January 16th, natural gas in storage fell by 216 billion cubic feet (bcf) which adds to the draw of 236 bcf in the week prior. Crude oil showed yet another inventory build for the week ended January 16th of 10.1 million barrels compared to a build of 5.4 million barrels in the previous week. Economic data was light domestically today, but there were a few secondarily-important reports.

Overall, jobless claims have been inching higher and don’t appear to be giving much optimism to the January 2015 employment situation report. Initial claims declined by 10,000 in the week ended January 17th, to a level of 307,000 which is just above consensus expectations. The January 17th week represents the sample week for the January 2015 employment report and, when compared to December’s sample week, it shows a sizable 18,000 increase. Currently, the 4-week moving average is now at 306,500 thanks to a gain of 6,500 in the prior week for the highest reading since July 2014. When comparing the sample weeks, the average shows a 7,750 increase this month. Lagging by a week, the continuing jobless claims weren’t much better for the week ended January 10th. Continuing claims increased by 15,000 to 2.443 million with the 4-week moving average up 9,000 to 2.427 million. Compared to a month earlier, the average has increased by 8,000 claims. Additionally, the unemployment rate for insured workers remains unchanged at 1.8%. Today’s report indicates no special factors impacting the numbers, and while the levels are healthy, they aren’t getting much better.

Additionally, the Federal Housing Financing Agency (FHFA) noted another improvement in the housing sector, this time in terms of home prices. In November 2014, the FHFA noted that home prices increased by 0.8% month-over-month, compared to a 0.4% increase in October. Expectations were far lower and called for a 0.3% increase for November. On a year-over-year basis, home prices increased by 5.3% compared to 4.4% in October 2014. While growth in the housing sector remains subdued, there are still some marginal crawls to the upside. For December and January, we may see a decline in prices due to selling in the winter months. The next housing report will be from Case-Shiller, out on Tuesday, January 27th.


 

Log In To Add Your Comment


Home | Products & Services | Education | In The Media | Help | About Us |
Disclaimer | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use |
All Rights Reserved.

 

×