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Afternoon Note

Terror in the Markets

By Dominique Paul, Research Analyst
1/9/2015 1:53 PM

The market rally was put on hold this morning due to continued terrorist activity in France. Earlier today, multiple citizens were taken under hostage by gunmen (who were linked to yesterday’s massacre) in France. Observers and investors are becoming increasingly more concerned about their safety, which is understandable. However, in the grand scheme of the things, it is extremely important for us to band together and help each other through these difficult times. We cannot give these terrorist more power by allowing them to make us live in fear.

Domestically, we had some disappointing economic data reports released. First, during the month of November, consumer credit rose $14.1 billion, significantly lower than the upwardly revised increase of $16 billion in October and the consensus estimate of a $15 billion. Though consumer confidence is up, consumers are not spending at levels that would allow retailers to see extremely large sales gains. In fact, consumers are spending less as revolving credit decreased by $900 million in November, making this the second time credit card debt has contracted in the past four months. On the plus side, consumers are still investing in larger-ticket items as non-revolving credit rose by $15 billion due to consumers taking on more auto loans and student loans.

Also in November, merchant wholesalers witnessed their inventories build after sales decreased by 0.3% month-over-month to $452.2 billion; however this is up 2.4% over November 2013. When breaking down sales, it can be observed that durable goods component rose 0.2% from October and rose 6.3% from November 2013 while the nondurable goods component decreased by 0.8% from October and decreased by 0.8% from November 2013. Total inventories rose by 0.8% month-over-month to $547.2 billion and were up 7.1% from November 2013. Computer and computer peripheral equipment saw the largest monthly inventory buildup. All in all, the stock-to-sales ratio rose to 1.21 in November from 1.20 in October. Though the report indicates that there may be a slowing demand for products in metals, chemicals, lumber, machinery, and farm products, wholesale inventories have been holding steady over the past few months.


Comments
I am pleased that consumer credit is not expanding. Too much consumer debt is not a good thing. Excessive debt in a rapidly-expanding economy may work for a short time, but the U.S. economy is now facing some head-winds as a result of an increasing value in the greenback. Too much consumer credit leaves little wriggle room for big-ticket purchases: durables, autos, and homes, which really drives the economy. Am I wrong?

Bob Weir, eResearch on 1/9/2015 5:32:29 PM
 

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