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Afternoon Note

GDP Leveling and Giving Market a Boost

By Jennifer Coombs, Research Analyst
10/30/2014 2:19 PM

After some early-hour volatility (thanks to the further collapse of oil futures) the major indices have reversed to trade in the green at the commencement of the afternoon session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is getting a significant boost today thanks to a 9.0% pop in the shares of Visa (V) after the company reported positive operating results and earnings after the close yesterday. In Germany, the nation’s unemployment rate took an unexpected plunge in October, and the Indian stock market is making a huge climb thanks to the US Fed ending Quantitative Easing (QE) 3. Russia continues to be in trouble as its largest oil producer is struggling to maintain profitability. However, the biggest market mover today after the weekly jobless claims and earnings, was the third quarter (Q3) reading for the gross domestic product (GDP).

The GDP numbers did little to move the market this morning, though the first Q3 reading was significantly better than expected. GDP growth decelerated slightly in Q3 after Q2 showed a massive pop in activity following adverse weather impacts in Q1. The early estimate came in at a healthy 3.5% annualized rate for Q3, following the jump of 4.6% in Q2 and still ahead of the consensus estimate at 3.0%. Final sales increased by 4.2% in the quarter after increasing 3.2% in the second quarter. This pop in real GDP is primarily reflective of positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, non-residential fixed investment, and government spending, though it was partially offset by negative data from private inventory investment. Imports also decreased during the quarter. GDP data in 2014 may still be affected by the slow economic activity in the first quarter since the third quarter is now seen as more of a settling back to a normal rate. The notable negative in Q3 was a drop in inventory investment and a slowdown in consumer spending growth, which were both strong in Q2. However, the deceleration in growth between Q2 and Q3 is largely reflected in the downturn in private inventory investment and decelerations in PCE.  Overall, we can say that the economy grew better than everyone expected. The growth is very good news for corporate profits as reflected in recent string of better-than-expected earnings across all industries, so far. However, it will be interesting to see how soon the Fed decides to reverse its commitment to avoid raising interest rates for a “considerable time.”


 

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