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Afternoon Note

Earnings Season Kickoff and Retail Sales

By Jennifer Coombs, Research Analyst
10/14/2014 2:00 PM

So far, so good. The major equity indices have reversed from yesterday’s selloff to all trade in the green; the NASDAQ, in particular, is up a whopping 1.2% for the session. Yesterday, the stock market sold off for the third consecutive session as the S&P 500 finished its worst three-day stretch since 2011. For now, it does not appear that we will make a fourth session of sell offs, but between the scares associated with ISIS and Ebola, there’s no telling where we will end for the day. Oil futures are also getting crushed again, falling below $84.50 a barrel. In addition, earnings season kicked off this morning with three of the major US banks reporting: JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup. JPMorgan's earnings were actually leaked early and showed earnings per share that missed expectations, while revenue topped estimates. Wells Fargo reported earnings that were in-line with expectations, while Citi beat analysts’ estimates and announced that the company will be exiting 11 markets around the world. Global markets continued to struggle today, while here in the US, we received a glimpse into what the busiest time of the year may mean for the consumer sector.

In retail sales, we have received a modest amount of reprieve over the same time last year. With gas prices at record lows over the past month, consumers are putting that extra cash to work in the form of accumulating more stuff (or upgrading to the iPhone 6). Despite the weakness cited in the previous readings, ICSC-Goldman describes current store sales as strong and discretionary spending as healthy. ICSC-Goldman's weekly same-store sales rate declined by 0.7% for week ended October 11th; the year-on-year rate was also down slightly at 3.8% from the 3.9% observed the prior week. For the month of October as a whole, so far, the report sees year-on-year sales coming in between 3.5% to 4.5%, which is quite strong for this time of year and setting up nicely for the holidays. Redbook noted similar results for the week ended October 11 as same-store year-on-year sales slowed to 3.8% from an outsized 5.4% in the previous week. Despite the slowing, Redbook describes sales as positive led by fall apparel and Halloween shopping. The research firm also cites that Halloween falls on a Friday this year which retailers see as a big positive for traffic. In addition, some retailers have started displaying Halloween and Christmas merchandise side-by-side in an effort to kick-start holiday sales.

 

 


 

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