The Fed is meeting next week and there is a lot of buzz about the removal of “considerable time” from their recent statement signaling that the rate hike may come sooner than previously thought. This week a lot of important economic data was overlooked by sensational non-economic news, but the tea leaves are sending out complex messages.

Charge It

On one hand, people are beginning to use credit cards again and borrowing money for more than just cars and student loans. From March 2013 to March of this year, consumers tepidly increased revolving credit by $12.0 billion, but in the last four months, they have since increased revolving credit by $19.0 billion.

Take This Job

On the other hand, the amount of people quitting their jobs in July climbed to the highest level since June 2008; Approximately 2.52 million people told their boss, “See ya later.” There is no doubt that this is high on Janet Yellen’s radar. However, the quits are not keeping up with the pace of job openings which suggest that there is not yet the kind of confidence that underpins a strong economy.

Today’s Session

This morning’s retail sales number added to the notion that people are spending, although the biggest news were slightly higher revisions to July’s tallies. I still don’t think job creations, wages or spending are at levels for the Fed to make a move that will not be reversible, considering their lack of credibility already. That said, lets watch the action at the open. The intraday reversals to the upside are great signs reflecting weak hands selling at the open and stronger/smarter hands nibbling at the end.

Retail Sales

As mentioned earlier, August retails sales indicate that the consumer sector appears to be stronger than originally indicated by employment data: the American consumer is definitely out spending. Also, this is the highest month-over-month gain since April. Retail sales jumped 0.6% in August after a rise of 0.3% in July and was in-line with analyst expectations. When auto sales are excluded, sales gained 0.3% in both August and July, also matching expectations. Excluding both autos and gasoline, sales were still quite healthy as they increased 0.5%, following a rise of 0.3% in July. The leading component, not surprisingly, was in motor vehicles which increased by 1.5%. Next, building materials & garden equipment gained 1.4% - which is also indicative of some improvement in the housing sector. Weakness was led by a 0.8% decline in gasoline sales. Overall, August retail sales were healthy and this may help to boost estimates for third quarter GDP growth.