Wall Street Strategies
Hello! Sign in or Register


Afternoon Note

China Trade Balance Getting Stronger

By Jennifer Coombs, Research Analyst
9/8/2014 1:33 PM

It’s a testy market out there today with the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 struggling to regain ground, while the hype surrounding Alibaba’s (BABA) impending IPO is causing the technology-heavy NASDAQ to soar just below 52-week highs. Alibaba is set to be the largest initial public offering ever, expecting shares to price in a range of $60 to $66 with roughly 2.5 billion shares offered for a total value between $148-163 billion. Geopolitical woes remain light today, although the European markets struggled today thanks to a vote in the UK which may result in Scotland succeeding from Great Britain to become its own country. At around 3:00PM this afternoon, we will receive a reading on the US consumer credit situation for the month of July. In the meantime, we continue to take a tour around the world and note some improvement in the Chinese economy.

In August, China’s trade surplus widened by $49.83 billion from $28.5 billion a year earlier, and beating economist forecasts. The surplus marks a record high for the second straight month in August as exports drastically increased while imports declined. Chinese exports increased 9.4% over last year to $208.5 billion of the month of August; however this was lower than the 14.5% increase in the month of July, but an improvement relative to market expectations. Sales to the US increased by 11.4% over last year, while sales to the European Union increase 12.2%. In contrast, sales to Japan fell 1.7% and exports to South Korea decreased 12.6%. China saw its imports drop 2.4% year-on-year to $158.6 billion in August after falling 1.5% percent in the previous month. Purchases from the United States fell by 3.1% over last year while imports from the EU increased 4.5%.

We note that since 1995, China has been recording consistent trade surpluses (with the exception of a few outliers). In fact, between 2004 and 2009 China’s annual trade surplus increased 10 times. Yet, as the global demand slows down and import of commodities for infrastructure projects and consumer goods grows, there has and will continue to be a significant decline in trade surplus. In the last few years, the biggest trade surpluses were recorded with the United States, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Vietnam and Singapore, and the biggest trade deficits were recorded with Taiwan, South Korea, Australia, Germany, South Africa, Japan and Brazil.

China is continuing the quest to maintain strong GDP growth; this is definitely one sign that the country may live up to economists’ expectations after all.


 

Log In To Add Your Comment


Home | Products & Services | Education | In The Media | Help | About Us |
Disclaimer | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use |
All Rights Reserved.

 

×