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Afternoon Note

Mankind, Anxiety, Fear & Loathing...

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
6/9/2013 9:34 PM

Anxiety was born in the very same moment as mankind. And since we will never be able to master it, we will have to learn to live with it - just as we have learned to live with storms.

From "Manuscript Found in Accra" Paulo Coelho

You can cut it with a knife. The anxiety is so thick it's got everyone looking for a near-term correction and individual good news is ignored or swept under a rug. It's true 175,000 jobs for May is a major letdown in the grand scheme of things but it allows for a Goldilocks scenario of (tepid) growth coupled with massive money-printing. The thing is I don't see that money helping Main Street. Wages are stagnant and even minute increases in official inflation readings can feel like big leaps to most Americans.

American households have more money on paper via the stock market and home prices but for millions it's a reminder of a shakeup that saw them sell stocks at much lower levels and lose their homes during the bottoming process. For those Americans all the money printing in the world is just a rumor or outrageous way banks continue to be favored even as regular folks were tossed to the wolves. The public is simply not taking the bait. In the first quarter, mortgage debt decreased $53.0 billion and other liabilities $59.0 billion. People are spending their paychecks at the mall but not taking on massive debt beyond student loans and automobiles.

Coupled with businesses refusing to invest in major projects, and one has to wonder about the futility of printing so much money.

Still, there are enough people convinced once printing goes away that everyone will crawl into a hole and the economy, or at least the stock market, will enter some kind of nuclear winter. I just don't think the average American would bat an eye if the Fed shut it down tomorrow. Most wouldn't even know it happened and many more would know the name of Kim and Kanye's baby. Don't get me wrong, there's anxiety on Main Street too, it's just different than Wall Street's. Regular people are still wondering about jobs, job security, and about when they are going to earn more money.

It's too bad so many voted for higher taxes on the other guy, understanding it would impact their wallets as well. Now we are dealing with a flaccid Main Street recovery while billions of dollars are flowing somewhere, dammed up behind massive walls that will crack and flood the nation one day. It's so sad those folks that haven't benefited from the largess should be punished for it anyway. Yet, despite all the disappointment, anxiety and fear I think you have to own a portfolio of great American companies because highs and lows were born in the very same moment as mankind, and fortunes change along the way. We have to learn to live with it—just as we have learned to live with storms - to coin a phrase.

More than Noise

One of the more remarkable aspects of Rally 2013 has been the ability of the market to ignore the noise from Washington DC. There's no doubt that in the summer of 2011 the debt ceiling debate and inability to get things done hurt the stock market, yet investors have generally favored gridlock on Capitol Hill. Maybe that's the case now.

Yet, with the avalanche of scandals that paint a picture of a nation where no citizen should expect privacy and individuals with unfavorable opinions could be targeted for punishment by the federal government, the situation is more problematic than hammering out a bi-partisan spending plan.

I think one reason the market hasn't recoiled over the news is the impact of these scandals on an agenda that's decidedly not business friendly.

Abe on Course

Japan's economic data came in much better than expected helping to move the Nikkei up more than 5%.

> GDP +4.1% estimate +3.5%
> Current Account surplus 750 billion Yen - estimate 350 billion Yen

The numbers are good but I think it's the promise of lowering corporate tax rates, removing regulations and working to drive incomes 4% higher that are really moving that market, which had been in a freefall. Yes, some call Abe a nationalist but after two decades of slipping into a coma Japan needs the harshest kick in the pants and belief in its own greatness.

American needs the same thing but will not get it.

Today's Session

I see two nice pieces of news for the domestic economy:

* McDonald's (MCD) 2.6% global same store sales versus the estimate of 1.7%, driven by the US +2.0%; the street was looking for an increase of 1.0%.
* FedEx (FDX) will increase shipping rates next month by 4.5% - pricing power is a magic ingredient for any company and reflects confidence in demand and macro conditions.
* The U.S.'s AA+ credit rating outlook was increased to stable from negative by Standard & Poor's, which cited receding fiscal risks.

There are a couple import investment conferences this week and we think stock-moving news will be made.
Comments
He is no hero,i beleieve you sign an agrement not to disclose he is no different than the guy who disclosed secret things about US subs he should go to federal prison is the chinese don't offer a deal to him

john sherman on 6/10/2013 10:12:02 AM
criminal

jim on 6/10/2013 10:18:06 AM
C

Edward Stone on 6/10/2013 10:19:40 AM
We spent 2 billion for the snooping
facility in Utah, that is now for nothing. This was a criminal act and we need to stop idolizing these idiots.
Fox is taking the wrong side on this one.

tom wayne on 6/10/2013 10:20:27 AM
I think it is too early to tell. I applaud the courage it takes for anyone to stand up for what they believe is right and just, but acts like this affect very many lives in so many ways whether it is the agent that just had their cover blown or scapecoat government worker that has to take the fall for a cowardly superior. I fear an arrogant and overreaching big government that feels it can justify any action for the good of the Republic by squashing our individual rights.

Rich Powell on 6/10/2013 10:21:50 AM
I am afraid to say anything.

Mark on 6/10/2013 10:25:42 AM
to soon to tell
or should i say
"should i really answer that question?"

Bob Listello on 6/10/2013 10:41:26 AM
It's a clear violation of the 4th ammendment. If someone is suspected of wrongdoing, get a warrant !!

"Those who sacrifice liberty for freedom deserve neither"

Ben Franklin

Glenn on 6/10/2013 10:51:58 AM
OOPS !!!

That should read:

"Those who sacrifice LIBERTY for SECURITY deserve neither" Ben Franklin

My other comment still goes :-)

Glenn on 6/10/2013 11:01:31 AM
Not sure yet ... seems like a necessary tool but, given the history of administration's use of private data, not much trust there ...

david hamer on 6/10/2013 11:07:33 AM
too early to tell but he's not the main issue anyway. Big issues are privacy and why we are "subcontracting to firms like Booz,Allen.Very concerned about that KIND of privatization!

mary eaton on 6/10/2013 11:12:30 AM
criminal

zz on 6/10/2013 11:14:31 AM
criminal..

JA_investor on 6/10/2013 11:28:06 AM
Too early to tell. The people of this country need to be informed regarding government intrusions because, as we have recently observed, we are not being "ruled" by a benevolent government. It would be very easy to bypass so-called safeguards and target your political opposition. Most of us had no idea of the real power of the Presidency until Obama was elected and started exercising that power to the extreme. We need to scale back the size and power of the Federal Goverment.

Bill Bahlburg on 6/10/2013 11:28:08 AM
If he has already admitted to this then he is a criminal. But, I do not understand his admission.

Colleen Hamilton on 6/10/2013 11:53:59 AM
TETT: Snowden provides info I believe, frames the issues clearly and appears sincere; however, he is shifty-eyed and that gives me concern as to whether he is being totally honest? I am sure he is frightened and fears retribution from "Big Brother". (Based upon what we have seen from this Administration. . .he has reason for concern.)

FinethingsABT on 6/10/2013 11:57:48 AM
After being bombed at Pearl Harbor we interned our own citizens because they looked like the enemy. A very low point in our history, and now after getting hit again we have instead violated the freedom and privacy of all our citizens by a government that is too large to monitor it's own departments. Have we learned nothing from history?

Karen on 6/10/2013 11:59:02 AM
Definitely a hero, what bothers me is that there are not more heroes inside of these institutions. i worked for NSA back in the 70s, figured out that what we collected as information was redacted to show a completely different outcome. I worked on soviet missiles, was present for several tests of surface to surface missiles. It was plainly clear that the safest place to be was the target, yet the Senate Armed Forces Appropriation committee would get a report that they were over 90% successful. So I asked myself why, and the answer was if the truth was told, less money for the military industrial complex. then i found out that the Trilateral Commission was really running the agency, and a member of that organization or the CFR have been in charge of both the CIA and NSA for decades. Men from this same group have dominated high level cabinet posts for every President for over 35 years. This is the problem. They have been fear mongering and robbing America, regardless of which party thinks it is in power.

David Huber on 6/10/2013 12:20:45 PM
I say hero.
The government has laws that protect private industry whistle blowers from retaliation. Why does the federal government think it can retaliate when someone exposes its abuse of power?

Tim on 6/10/2013 12:25:19 PM
Right now he has committed a criminal act in addition to violating his employer's code of conduct. Either he has received very poor legal advice or is just not a very smart person. He could have contacted his Senator in NC and I'm sure he would have been given some protection and good advice. I live in NC and know our Senator. Foolish lad!!

Gregory P. Doyle on 6/10/2013 1:36:22 PM
I must be nice to just electronically create and transfer $87 billion somewhere to someone without having the actual expense of pringing dollars and transporting them. The only time I use cash is to place or pay my golf bets.

Rich on 6/10/2013 1:55:53 PM
Oh---too early to say but our heros or traitors seem to always fall on political lines.

Rich on 6/10/2013 2:00:03 PM
hero

bob Gilliam on 6/10/2013 2:03:02 PM
What does the question have to do with the market unless you are talking about the market for whistles ?

Harold Sader on 6/10/2013 3:05:40 PM
He is a hero. Power corrupts as you can see what is happening in Washington.

Char Voss on 6/10/2013 3:45:55 PM
Too early to judge

Sharron on 6/10/2013 3:51:47 PM
If he doesn't want to hide, why is he in Hong Kong? Secrets held by millions aren't secrets.

Patricia Flynn on 6/10/2013 4:00:37 PM
he is a hero.

gregory sheehy on 6/10/2013 5:03:59 PM
Too early to tell about him personally. We don't know his genuine motivations (and may never). What I AM sure of is that I'm glad he did it - this information needed to be made public, so that we can begin to pull back from the excess.

It's not all one way or the other, the concepts in the Patriot Act were right, but a decade later we need to review and reign in, not hide and keep more secret. So to me, Snowden is irrelevant, it's the policies, and the change of same, that matter.

Leslie P on 6/10/2013 5:06:59 PM
It takes a lot of intestinal fortitude to step up as he did to defend principle. So far, he is a hero. The tide could turn if he shares specific knowledge with China or others, but so far he only corroborates what most already thought -- Big Brother government is watching !

Doug Cole on 6/10/2013 5:07:32 PM
Have worked in and around gov with high-level clearances. Never disclosed anything. But world has changed and truth and honor seem dead except for a very few in Congress. I wish Snowden had gone to Cruz, Rand Paul, Issa and sought protection. Ones oath is to the USA and Constitution. It worked when honor held in earlier times. Clearly "honor" (for either party) is no longer a foundation of US gov't. I think this may have played a part in decision to go to non-US media. Until honor is restored, no oath-taker can fully trust the oath-givers. Very sad.

Steve on 6/10/2013 5:22:45 PM
Criminal! If he was just a whistleblower he wouldn't be hiding in HongKong. Still this story is fishy a high school drop out working for NSA & CIA. Story stinks!

Judy on 6/10/2013 6:02:30 PM
At first I thought Snowden is a traitor, however after thinking about it, I think he is a hero. The government has way too much security.

Jim Leech on 6/10/2013 6:37:50 PM
Absolute power corrupts absolutely. Unfortunetly the world is upside down. The Government should be punished for this!

GB on 6/10/2013 9:58:27 PM
Too early to tell. But he may soon be a man without a country . . . and broke to boot . . . unless he makes a deal with China. Then he'll be just a traitor.

Dennis Howard on 6/10/2013 10:05:04 PM
Hero! In the U.S. Army, he took an oath to "defend the Constitution...against all enemies, foreign and domestic". And this he did.

Frank in Chicago on 6/10/2013 11:09:47 PM
A. We need more of him!

GB on 6/11/2013 12:28:23 AM
Hero. period. Someone has to slow the madness of this tyrannical govt. He will not stop it but has mde us folks stand up and say "Wait a minute"

Andrew Durkovich on 6/11/2013 6:24:19 AM
Hero.
There is no good reason for that wide of a surveillance net. Also, what's to stop the future governments to say "well, we already have this data, no one will be hurt if we use it for ______"

This practice must be stopped and the only way to do that is for brave whistleblowers to come forward. Employees of tech companies need to do the same, we have the right to know what's going on.

Tom K on 6/11/2013 1:15:05 PM
 

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