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10/8/2012 4:34 PM
Jobs Data Numbers Cruncher Scary Resume
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
I'm a little tired, so my morning commentary will be short.
First, I'm a grandfather for the first time, and it's an amazing blessing. God is great!
The country my granddaughter has come into is at a very dangerous point. The economy is teetering, but Main Street is being told it's all okay. What's problematic is the rapid decline in the last year. That unemployment rate number on Friday was a total farce, but even if it was completely honest, 7.8% is way too high for an economy that supposedly turned the corner a long time ago.
The number doesn't jibe, with an economy growing at 1.3%. The only honest aspect of the report was that more people were entering the work force, but I guarantee a new line of questioning accompanied the Household Survey. Few people know that President Obama placed a former contract negotiator and union steward to run the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Erica Groshen taught Statistical Methods for Economists, Trade Unions, Collective Bargaining, and Public Policy at Harvard. Although she calls herself "nonpartisan," rumblings about sending her children to a communist summer camp coupled with her left-leaning teachings have many worried. Of course, the Left uses the victim-race card, saying Nixon pushed all the Jews out of BLS, so it's about time. This is scary stuff.
What was real in the Friday number was private sector job creation at 104,000, below consensus and less than half where it was a year ago.
Manufacturing continues to shed jobs, and temp work is exploding. This is a shadow of what America is really all about. But, this is how nations morph when the focus is on squeezing the gap between rich (and the so-called rich) and poor, by browbeating the former, while spreading crumbs to the latter.
If Socialism is So Great, Why all the Cheating?
Just as I'm sure Friday's jobs numbers were manipulated by the administration, Hugo Chavez was able to cheat Henrique Capriles. Hugo Chavez, whose ham-fisted socialist approach has reduced welfare and poverty while erasing real opportunities for real prosperity, more than likely stole the election, which posed the greatest threat to his 14 year run to date. He has nationalized businesses and usurped the power of Congress and courts ... sound familiar? Considering all the oil Venezuela possesses, it's a shame the nation continues to struggle. The fix was in from the beginning, but I read lots of interviews where poor people waited as much as six hours for the chance to vote out another great redistributionist.
For me, that's a great sign. While some poor people are okay with being bought off, others want real opportunities, not handouts. Some understand ripping down wealth created by others limits the chances they could have real wealth or real opportunities other than being wards of the state.
The market looks hesitant as we head into the next round of earnings announcements. In the meantime investors are grappling for direction, looking for a catalyst as Apple shares continue to be under pressure; another household name needs to step up. I find it interesting that the downgrading of China's economic growth hasn't sparked rumors of a massive stimulus program. Of course downgrades from the World Bank are like me predicting yesterday's weather.
The market also gets the US economy is nowhere as "great" as the media would have us believe... and knows too that a false sense of security means less intervention, although Ben Bernanke isn't so stupid as to spin the news like those trying to get the incumbent reelected. By the way, I met Alan Greenspan yesterday, watched the Redskins with him and others in the owner's box. It was great... I didn't ask about policy although my son wanted to ask him to make a silly face for a photo project.
I told my son that was his silly face, his serious face, his concerned face, his face in the face of danger... simply, it doesn't change.
|As usual Charles, your comments are dead on, but still, rejoice in the miracle of a new life. Welcome to the joys of Grandparenting.|
Lee Doble on 10/8/2012 11:13:53 AM
|to augment what you said:|
When last quarter’s gdp is revised down from 1.7% to 1.3% by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, B.E.A., a level that is recessionary without inflation; when the hard jobs’ growth number from 50,000 businesses comes in at an anemic 114,000, a number not high enough to keep up with population growth (around 150,000); when other agencies indicate that the total number of unemployed actually rose by 100,000; the job growth from the household survey (which is a random sample, polling households by telephone) of 873,000 becomes extremely suspicious as it is inconsistent with other numbers concerning the economy from other sources. Considering its timing, one month before the election, and the lack of corroborating facts, this number, the highest in decades, becomes so incredible as to demand further investigation.
paul meyerhoff on 10/8/2012 12:03:01 PM
|Erica Groshen has yet to be confirmed by the Senate...would she be working in that position without confirmation?....|
Gary Jugenheimer on 10/8/2012 5:31:03 PM
|Sorry I forgot...congratulations on becoming a grandfather!|
Gary Jugenheimer on 10/8/2012 5:31:58 PM
|First and foremost 'Congratulations' on your grandchild and your offspring's new addition.|
I too am very suspicious of the the flatline-like GDP and U6 #'s whereas 114k posts a .3% unemployment decrease..?
It doesn't jive. At all.
markit8dude on 10/8/2012 9:04:03 PM
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