Wall Street Strategies
Hello! Sign in or Register


Question of the Week

I say this is the most amazing stealth rally in history. Billions of dollars are coming out of the market, millions of people are out of work, and there is a dark cloud over America- still stocks are on fire.

In your mind, is there any justification for this stock market rally?
Post your answer below.

Morning Commentary

Greatest Stealth Rally in History

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
4/27/2012 8:08 AM

It was an odd session in which we saw stocks move higher even though Spain and Italy watched their markets plunge, and several big companies posted disappointing results including UPS. Those results did underscore the notion the US economy is doing better while the global economy is slowing. From a micro level that's important, although longer term trends clearly favor the rest of the globe. The good news is we continue to be reminded this is a dynamic economy that has withstood a barrage of attacks from the most powerful office in the world. The sad news is we could be rocking so much more. We actually could use this lull in the global economy to lengthen our lead.

Yesterday UPS missed the street, but it wasn't because of America.

But yesterday wasn't about corporate earnings (of the 45 S&P companies that posted results 18 or 40% missed) or the United States economy but further fleshing out of a consensus on where the Federal Reserve stands. It's not overwhelming but the street is leaning toward a conventional wisdom Bernanke is not done weaving his magic. Hence, a bigger move yesterday than the Apple led rebound on Tuesday. It's why gold edged higher, too. Still, this market rally has been stealthy from the very beginning and continues to be the least talked about rally in my professional career.

Here's the rub-I like it!

Part of me is sad so many Americans have given up on the stock market and the notion of ownership. I'm the pied piper of ownership-don't give up on it! Own a house, own land, own gold; own a business including the biggest and best in the world through the stock market. Hey, don't get me wrong, our cash levels have been elevated for more than a month. But, we are offering new ideas and we are going to make money in the stock market. Back to being excited that so many are missing the market; at some point, they all come back in. I plan to have positions up huge when the Dow hits 14,000 because I think the masses will break open the flood gates.

This is the nature of human beings and all their emotions. Of course, there are valid reasons to be concerned and frustrated and angry but things could get better in November.

The Pros Sulking Too

Not only have novice or retail investors missed this remarkable rally, the pros have been too skeptical for too long and are getting more bearish.

And CEOs are talking Smack

I really think Caterpillar's CEO played it too close to the vest with his cautious comments on China and Brazil. Yesterday, FT said Brazil's wealth will double in eleven years—that is the stuff of legends, and we should hear the footsteps, but companies like Caterpillar should be hearing the cash register. I found a CEO yesterday that isn't afraid to talk smack and take on rumor-mongers. Titan International (TWI) posted results that included record margins and earnings per share. But that wasn't enough for their CEO, Maurice Taylor, who wanted the world to know he's rocking, and he ain't scared—even taking on the bloggers.

"The order book is filled for the year and we must keep increasing our output."

"Farming, construction and earthmoving and mining are all very strong and we expect 2012 to be another year of growth."

"The dynamics in agriculture are changing around the world and are positively impacting the demand for machinery in the industry. Prices for metals, oil and gas prices in the Earthmoving and Mining markets are expected to remain at attractive levels to support strong demand."

"In this past quarter there were some bloggers who were concerned over inventory and the auto supply industry. Titan International is not in the auto supply business, but we are in the OTR tire and wheel business. Titan builds to order."

"Titan's mining service business is a hot market."

"We have just opened a facility in the oil sands in Canada and already are receiving the demand to double the facility."

But Worries are real

The biggest worry is the November elections, make no mistake. The second biggest worry is Americans giving up on this country. The lack of optimism is deafening. Sadly, the less you believe the more the anarchists and collectivists win. It's what they're peddling by the bucket-load. America needs a psychological wakeup call but its skeletal structure is in good shape after a couple of centuries of success. I am worried, although I actually feel better about the elections in recent days. In the meantime, there has to be vigilance against all the bald-faced power grabs and attempts to usurp rights.

I'm also worried about a date with inflation, or I should say runaway inflation. That could be avoided with the November election, but if not, the seeds are already in place. This should actually give you a greater sense of urgency to make a difference. But, I have to underscore giving up on the American Dream by checking out brings your worst fears closer to reality.

Don't Mess with the Heartland

I was in the middle of an interview on Payne Nation with Congressman Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming who has been fighting back on an assortment of proposals and new rules against the American heartland she calls "absurd" when news broke the White House threw in the towel on its proposal to kick kids off the farm. The decision to withdraw the rule was made in response to thousands of comments expressing concerns about the effect of the proposed rules on small family-owned farms.

The release from the Department of Labor had a very interesting line: "To be clear, this regulation will not be pursued for the duration of the Obama administration."
Chalk up one for the little people with the same spirit as those that fought for independence against a greedy king. I must say there was an avalanche of replies on this from yesterday's question of the day. Stuart Varney from Fox Business pushed this harder than anyone on television, too, and should take a bow.

Today's Session

Lots of earnings results after the close. SBUX got hammered, which is silly but creates a buying opportunity, but other stocks took off like scalded dogs. The theme of better sales in America propelled both Amazon (AMZN) and Expedia (EXPE).

AMZN beat top and bottom, and didn't warn, and the street loves it. It was all about electronic gadgets including the Kindle as well at the Kindle app, which is the #5 downloaded free iPad app.

> Domestic sales increased 35.9% with operating margins of 4.7%
> International sales climbed 31.1% with operating margins of 0.9%

Expedia saw great quarter to quarter and year over year growth driven by its hotel business. The news was great but the difference was domestic business.

> Domestic Bookings $5,160 +16%
> International Bookings $3,260 +14%


Comments
Yes because the stock market looks ahead. Espically to Novemeber.

scott on 4/27/2012 9:58:36 AM
I too believe in ownership and I am invested in the stock market. However, it troubles me that equity investments are no longer viewed as long term investments in businesses and productive assets. The spinning of stocks by institutions and ownership periods measured in the microseconds suggests significant investment dollars are being consumed in transaction costs and fees as opposed to being productively employed. It is also difficult for this investor to renew his faith in Wall Street when the game seems so rigged against the individual investor.

Chuck on 4/27/2012 10:02:11 AM
This market is being moved by unaccounted inflation, technology efficiencies, Gov. Debt and a narrow group of stocks. This is what I believe makes it stealth in nature. This being said I do not disagree with where you think it is headed or the populace reaction at those levels.

jason on 4/27/2012 10:25:35 AM
Meeting of the Mind !! HOPE HOPE !

That the leading class understands without the POPOLUS 9peeons) they could not aquire any of their GREED's.

Be thanksfull to your DNA Yeh I am a guy who tried and tried I never made it out of the lower middle class . and worked weeks or month of 60-100 hrts week foir our real Ruler ISRAEL

Josef Brunner on 4/27/2012 10:44:59 AM
I agree that the economy is difficult to read this is due to government involvement. They may have broken the business model with infusion of government money. This need to correct itself, not by government but by the cycle. All anyone has learn is that if you take extreme risk and lose you have the potential of government aid. I just recently brought a home and the reason is because my wife and I saved for 2.5years for 20% down and money in the bank, we have been fortunate.

David Winkler on 4/27/2012 11:05:30 AM
Because its the only whorehouse in town .

Z on 4/27/2012 11:06:01 AM
I agree that the economy is difficult to read this is due to government involvement. They may have broken the business model with infusion of government money. This need to correct itself, not by government but by the cycle. All anyone has learn is that if you take extreme risk and lose you have the potential of government aid. I just recently brought a home and the reason is because my wife and I saved for 2.5years for 20% down and money in the bank, we have been fortunate.

David Winkler on 4/27/2012 11:09:22 AM
On the positive side, personal investors are extremely hopeful, inspite of this government's covetous ideology, or foreign investors are manipulating the market.

Grace Reeves on 4/27/2012 11:10:27 AM
Corporate profits are up because of the recent downsizing and expense cutting that so many companies wnet through at the height of the recession. They aren't hiring back and getting more done for less expense. I doubt anyone will be returning to increased unnecessary overheads any time soon. Let's just hope that people don't think Obama has had anything to do with this.

Maurie Daigneau on 4/27/2012 11:49:06 AM
If an egg farmer buys government subsidized egg farm stocks, and then sells them, then buys eggs with them, and then sells the eggs, is he really an egg farmer?

The real question is does this administration really believe that they have created true economic prosperity? Hard to answer that one, but if they do then we're all really screwed, because half the population already believes that they have. Wall Street doesn't care. That leaves the rest of us still living in reality wondering if there is a cure to the pervasive delusional malaise.

Henry C on 4/27/2012 11:56:15 AM
When something declines by 50% it takes a 100% gain to get even. This is like banging one's head against the wall so it feels good when the banging stops. There is no basis in reality for this euphoria other than maybe the banging seems to have subsided for now. The "real" unemployment rate (never mind the "cooked" numbers from politically motivated administration insiders)is nearing the Great Depression numbers and the party goes on. Reminds me of the Peggy Lee song, "Is That all There is?"

Charles R. Dettling on 4/27/2012 12:46:53 PM
None--it's the only game in the casino.

Rich on 4/27/2012 1:08:34 PM
More than like it is just Wall Street messing with our minds. They have already provide they can do as they please and the Prez will protect them.

Mary A. Manson on 4/27/2012 2:13:01 PM
Maybe people are more involved in their retirement accounts these days and just like putting their money in stocks. ???

Tamara on 4/27/2012 2:34:45 PM
It's baffling. I get the impression that world markets aren't self-assured, but keep looking at everyone else to see which way to move.

Patricia Flynn on 4/27/2012 3:41:07 PM
Thia an election year. Because we will be voting this year for the office of the President, there's a push by the incombents to drive the market to look like there is a recovery. If left alone there would not be much upward movement.

David on 4/27/2012 8:57:32 PM
I THINK PEOPLE ARE TIRED OF LOOKING AT MONEY SITTING IN THE BANK AND ARE GOING TO DO EVERYTHING THEY CAN TO GET SOME KIND OF GAIN, AS WE STILL HAVE TO EAT AND ALSO PEOPLE ARE NOT GOING TO DENY THEMSELVES OF SOME PLEASURE DURING TOUGH TIMES.

Tim Lindquist on 4/28/2012 12:36:45 AM
It's easy to understand a major diversion between the consumer economy and the stock market. Corporations have endless strategies available to protect their bottom lines: downsizing, shifting operations and attention overseas, cutting costs, and sometimes just amazing innovation a la Apple. Families and consumers have none of these. When a corporation fires 10,000 people, that effectively puts 10,000 households out of business. Single-head households are even more vulnerable. When one paycheck goes, that's a 100% cut. With two earners, you can still survive on one. Bottom line: families are just far more vulnerable. Ditto: so is the consumer economy.

Dennis Howard on 4/28/2012 1:19:31 PM
Companies continue to beat estimate most due to year over year comparisons where easy to beat. With people losing their jobs and homes the downturn is coming and will be worse than before.

Ken on 4/28/2012 1:30:54 PM
Wow! I'm a day late at getting to this question and amazed by the range of answers posted. Is there a full moon causing a upflaring of lunacy? We have the Marxist craziness and the anti-Semitic ranting. Then there is the class warfare talk that Obama used to get into office and is spreading like cancer.
So let me make 2 observations.
First, the market is still on the low end of historic P/E, so why is anyone surprised? With stimulus funds provided by the Fed, we should be surprised that the market is not higher. Yes, some companies have cut costs too much, effectively getting improved numbers by raping the future. But, most companies have gotten there without undue cuts and with good revenues, so I believe that the current levels are solid and we will continue to melt up to higher levels until we get rid of the socialist infection in D.C. (Then we will see employment improvement, less need to save for protection against extended loss of income, and a jump to more historic P/E.
Second, please stop the classs warfare. "Wall Street" is not an organized team of demons. And not all people receiving public assistance are lazy freeloaders. I am glad to say I have friends in both groups who I know to be honorable people. I believe most people I know try to do right regardless of the size wallet they have. America has no future hope unless we can restore our faith in Americans. We need to somwhow get rid of the Obamas and TV moguls who have used media as a bully pulpit to glorify bad behavior. And get back to a perspective where bad behavior is recognized as dishonorable and worthy of disdain instead of acceptance. Then we will be able to all pull together and become better people and a better America.

Bob G on 4/28/2012 9:52:17 PM
Obama must be doing a great job instilling confidence and has been extremely business friendly-even the most ardent far right republican must admit...if he's honest...Charles?:)

Jetti Diaz on 4/30/2012 3:26:56 AM
Very simply put, the reason for our slow economy, pulling money out of investments etc. is as plain as the nose on your face.

"Nation wide lack of confidence"

This will not change until there is a change in the White house.

tom wayne on 4/30/2012 5:00:56 PM
 

Log In To Add Your Comment


Home | Products & Services | Education | In The Media | Help | About Us |
Disclaimer | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use |
All Rights Reserved.

 

×