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Question of the Week

The gushing in the media over this morning's jobs report is amazing - they say 8.3% is perfect and President Obama is now a shoo-in. Do you think the economy and jobs are so great reelection is now a foregone conclusion?
Post your answer below.

Morning Commentary

Potato Fields Forever

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
2/3/2012 8:04 AM

"I'm not concerned about the very poor. We have a safety net there, if it needs repair, I'll fix it." Mitt Romney

Why do the media leap all over any comment that puts the spotlight on the poor? I sincerely believe there is a Faustian deal between the "poor" and those that would "protect" them that's resulted in generational poverty. The first trick is to get people to believe they are part of a class, in this case, the poor class.

The second trick is to get them to tie their futures to those of their neighbors, so instead of overcoming hurdles of life to achieve success they are anchored to communities where the pressure is to play the victim card. While there is strength in numbers, there is also weakness and the urge to be bold.

What we're facing in America over the course of this year isn't new and, in fact, has been part of the fabric of western civilization for centuries.

The Peasant War

I really hate the idea we are a nation of classes when we are, in fact, a mobile nation where people move up and down the economic ladder. You can be born poor and die rich and vice-versa in this country, and it has less to do with class and race than grit and determination. In fact, Tocqueville marveled at how Americans from each economic bracket thought they could be rich in this nation.

In Europe you were born into a class and that's where you died. This is the backdrop for the original wars over class and opportunity.

In 1524 a petition titled "Twelve Articles" was presented to the Holy Roman Empire on behalf of Germany peasants. The leader of this movement, Thomas Munzer, claimed to have been penetrated by divine will. Yet, the movement morphed into a secular battle that saw peasant insurrections including one at Muhlhausen in 1525 that dissolved the town council, confiscated Church property and created a communistic community. That uprising was put down and Munzer was tortured and executed. Yet, this was the last uprising in Europe before the French Revolution, and its roots are said to have influenced Karl Marx and other socialists and communists.

German peasants were seeking the abolition of cattle tithes, a death tax, and to preserve all common fields, forest and water so they could also hunt and fish. These were reasonable request, and there was indeed a class system in 16th century Germany that meant success in life was decided at birth. Today's America is not 16th century Germany where the class system was entrenched:

Princes
Lesser Nobility
Clergy
Patricians
Burgher
Plebeians
Peasants

The very poor in America are well taken care of and live a lifestyle better than the overwhelming majority of the rest of the planet. Poor Americans get gout, once called the "rich man's disease" and diabetes from obesity. I had a great interview with Tucker Carlson on Payne Nation last night, and we discussed the difference between the very poor and working poor. I've seen it first hand, and it's where the Faustian deal often begins and is acceptable. One person works for low wages and lives in the same neighborhood as someone that doesn't work but has all the same stuff. At some point a decision has to be made, and all too often it's for the working person to join the club, get political cover and a steady check and benefits.

Mitt Romney and President Obama should be concerned about the very poor because they stopped believing in the greatness of America. They can't see what has been a key fabric of our country going back to the visit from Tocqueville. But it's not our pity they deserve but a serious hand and push to get into the mix. If President Obama insists this is an unfair nation because high school dropouts aren't corporate CEOs and people that can't pass drug test don't get jobs driving long haul tractor trailers then I say fine. Let's go with that notion and make a new pact to replace that Faustian deal.

Everyone gets a fair shake and no excuses or finger pointing afterward

I think it's a better tradeoff that puts pressure on everyone to stand and deliver rather than sit back and collect a check and still somehow be a victim in this great country of ours.

"I'm gonna go down in history as being one of the best music men and businessmen in entertainment ... The people that I'm going to be greater than are Steven Spielberg, David Geffen and Clive Davis." -- Diddy

Listening to Ben Bernanke calmly talk about his ability to stem a massive tidal wave of future inflation brought to mind some of the cockiest quotes I've ever heard. In the world of sports and entertainment, arrogance is said to be a key component toward achieving success, but we all know it's the main reason for many a spectacular fall from grace. I cringe when the Chairman of the Federal Reserve says he could simply sell assets or dip into a magic bag of tricks and no matter how much momentum is behind it, stem the rise of inflation. These days, everyone is a star and learns how to speak in public and gets handlers, and it feels so much like Hollywood.

I wonder if the glare of that fame part of the gig is getting to Bernanke, or does he really think he's that good? One thing for sure is that sooner or later we are going to find out, and I fear it's not going to be pretty. Gold is already screaming about this inevitable battle and saying Bernanke is going down but not as the greatest Fed chairman ever, just like P Diddy isn't going to have a larger bust than Spielberg, Geffen or Clive David in the Music Hall of Fame. But P Diddy and Ben Bernanke will share a lot in common including the fact we are going to party from their efforts.

Yes, stocks are rocking and the Fed gets 90% of the credit, and this party is just getting started, unless those harsh anti-business policies prove too much even with the money printers working overtime.

Jobs Number

Some are using "great" to describe the jobs numbers, and indeed juxtaposed against expectations and such high levels of pessimism, yes this morning's jobs numbers were great. In the general scheme of things, however, this is the kind of number that should be at the low end of the range at this stage of a recovery and presidential term.

The number is very good and welcomed, and points to the fact our economy is cyclical.
Comments
Interesting they got this number by purposefully reducing the total labor force number. What happened to the 1.2M who dropped out?

Brad L on 2/3/2012 10:19:33 AM
Talk about shrinking work force, who is accounting for 10,000 A DAY baby boomers retiring collecting SS???
I am one of them and very concerned about what happens when this debt bubble bursts. Keep up the great work Charles

Jim Stewart on 2/3/2012 10:31:55 AM
This is completely ludicrous. 8.3 per cent unemployment is totally unaceptable. I do not believe that Obama is a shoe in for re-election. As it stands right now, I feel he's one term and done.

James Koerner on 2/3/2012 11:02:13 AM
Two things, the report today puts a dent on the unemployment argument that 99 weeks is required in today's economy and because of the number of individuals the last 3 months whose benefits expired (more than the previous 6 months combined) puts credence in the argument that the lengthy spoon feeding by the government was actually holding back job placement and searching to get hired.

Mike Clayton on 2/3/2012 11:16:39 AM
Not even close... personally I don't believe these job numbers to be sound indicators of an economy that is getting healthier (at least as healthy as the media would have us believe).
What are the true numbers when we factor in people whose position have been cut from full time (40 hours or so) to 32, or 24, or 16, (the under employed)? Also include the number of jobs / positions that no longer exist due to companies re-engineering their structures. What is that number? To me, this is the number that matters; but this is not discussed very much, if at all.
I believe that we are given tiny bits of information that is very biased and untrue in the overall context of things.

Thanks
Tim


Tim Abbot on 2/3/2012 11:20:13 AM
Were this Bush (either), the media response would be ho-hum. We are now a half step away from a large financial chasm, which is better, but not good.

jeff on 2/3/2012 11:49:13 AM
The statistics will be manipulated to whatever point is necessary to reelect Obama. The reality doesn't seem to matter to the administration. Not counting someone who is unemployed just because he stapped looking?? No inflation when gas and food are soaring?? I am unemployed and facing big inflation. The stats all what they want them to be.

Fran Touchette on 2/3/2012 11:54:48 AM
Absolutely not, I do not think we can get serious about predicting the election until the end of August. This is really a statement of how powerful the economy is despite being weighted down by a ton of negatives from government regulation, Europe failing economies, More than a few state economies about to go broke and an unemployment of still really being about 15%1
JLee

John Lee on 2/3/2012 12:22:33 PM
Funny how everyone keeps saying there's no inflation, but everything I buy in the grocery store and gas has increased dramatically...I know, they are not included in the inflation calculation...

Jeannie on 2/3/2012 12:26:52 PM
Too bad they can get away with spinning the numbers any way they want. Hopefully those who tell the truth will gain enough volume to be heard before election day.

Anton Cox on 2/3/2012 12:44:06 PM
Not if we want to preserve our way of life. We need to get off our rears and
make sure the president does not get re-elected.

Frances Wiggins on 2/3/2012 12:44:57 PM
I don't think it will take hardly any good news to re-elect Obama. Fools for Obama and a class war is all that I see on this year's horizon as opposed to rational debate or leadership. That's what I'm preparing our business for the next five years. Since a majority of the media controlling the debate is The Propaganda Ministry of this Administration, there are too few of us left and no real leader on our side to change the minds of the fools for Obama. Fundamental change of this country has occurred as Alexis de Tocqueville said could happen.

Kyle Willis on 2/3/2012 12:50:04 PM
I don't think the reason Obama's re-election is a forgone conclusion has anything to do with some modest job improvements, the people see what is real. However, I do believe it is a forgone conclusion, since Romney isn't able to communicate the advantages of conservative economic policies like Mitch Daniels did. Too bad he didn't use some of his wealth to get a few toastmaster lessons. :-)

Michael Crawford on 2/3/2012 1:32:36 PM
I think that only those who are already blind to reality will buy the bull that things are getting better. Those of us who look at the facts and have an open mind will see through the farce.

Lylah Saunier on 2/3/2012 1:57:30 PM
If the republican field could have one statesman I'd vote for him. However, mittens and newt are running to fill out their life ambitions. They are so far removed from the party of Lincoln it hurts. Give Obama credit, he single handedly saved the 1%ers asses and they want him out? Obama is the next president and maybe a real patriot will step up in 06.


Roo hart on 2/3/2012 2:39:22 PM
There were 2.5 million jobs lost from Dec. to Jan. but seasonally adjustment is what makes it look like an increase. Why do we seasonally adjust?

George Kramer on 2/3/2012 3:11:43 PM
If the jobs market is that good then I can't wait for the thousands of empty buildings in Riverside and San Bernardino Counties to get occupied again because it sure is an eyesore!

Gary Byrnes on 2/3/2012 3:55:20 PM
The present administration should be reminded of one of the great black comedian's remarks of 30 years ago when he said, "I aint poor man I'm just broke. Being poor is a state of mind while being broke is just a tempory condition." I would only hope that we could return to that analogy. Andrew Kovatch, Alamos, Sonora, Mexico

Andrew Kovatch on 2/3/2012 4:45:40 PM
I have been in the pharmaceutical industry for 30 years. 2.5 years ago I got laid off. It took 8 months to find by first job following the layoff. Then another layoff 10 months later. Went on unemployment for 4 months then got a job selling shoes at Nordstrom for 2 months just so I could get off unemployment. Another job in pharma related company for 7 months. Just got job back in the industry. Not one of the jobs I had since original layoff did I make more that 25% of my pharma salary! Almost lost my beach house. Burnt through most of 28 year severance package paying the bills. Bottom Line -- never gave up. Now former co. announced another round of layoffs. The industry is in a shambles and 10s of thousands loosing/lost high paying jobs. They are not counted as unemployed because of severance packages or, like me... counted as retired. The economy is still in a shambles and 8.3% is nothing to be proud of... especially since the real unemployment rate is still over 10%!!!

Tom on 2/3/2012 5:30:37 PM
If he getts re-elected, I'm moving to the moon!

Gail on 2/3/2012 7:04:36 PM
Charles,

I had forgotten Eric Hoffer until a read in Weekly Standard, Jan 2, p.39, of a new Hoffer biography. One argument of Hoffer's was that the course of the country wss toward a divide with an "intellectual" and bottom class on one side and a losing middle on the other.
That seems to describe our present Obama driven plight.



Bill Powers on 2/4/2012 1:22:49 PM
If the rate is truly dropping instead of the job market shrinking and their are more people working and the economy is making a comeback,then lets check to see if the revenue to the government is increasing.If it is not or is flat,then the argument that the job market is shrinking is valid.Compare this with the same thing at that time when the unemployment rate dropped under Reagan.And can someone please play the 2007 Democratic primary when Charlie Gibson cornered Obama on capital gains taxes.Charlie was right.

Gregg Waatti on 2/4/2012 2:13:15 PM
They are crazy! I am a contractor in socal. Work was adequate until mid 2010. Only because of refferal work of 35 years of experience. My partners are Hispanic immigrant citizens. I am so sorrowful for the 30 employees that have lost their jobs and am ashamed that my wife and myself my lose our home( properly acquired,no false documentation).My family has been here since 1774. I never recieved a handout from the government and never expected one. I can only believe that this debacle is the judgement of Almighty God on a nation of pagans. May God help us before we see a nation divided again because we know a house divided can not stand.

james kissinger on 2/4/2012 4:24:19 PM
 

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