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The Trump Rally

11/11/2016
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst

The Trump rally continues as the civility on display for the world to see emboldens and encourages investors. The handshake and mutual platitudes from yesterday’s meeting at the White House revived a rally that was clearly losing steam.

Donald Trump calling Barack Obama a “very good man” and Obama jokingly telling Trump not to answer reporters that shout out questions as the warring parties make nice in front of the American public. The transfer of power in the strongest nation in the world makes us proud- and when we’re proud, we tend to do extraordinary things.  

Trump Train

On Monday, the Dow Jones Transportation (DJT) average broke out big time adding credence to the rally as a harbinger of the economy.  Another element to the move might be the possibility that President- Elect Donald Trump might get the key players in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to blink much sooner than anyone thought possible. 

Yesterday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he was willing to renegotiate the deal while Mexican President Nieto agreed to meet with Trump before his inauguration.  One of the last parts of the imbalanced deal was allowing Mexican truck drivers to drive goods beyond the border and to their final destination.  Previously, they would drive goods over the border and American drivers would take it from there.

The Teamster union, citing harm to truckers and the warehouse industry, hated the idea and filed a lawsuit when the pilot program began in 2011; however, President Obama allowed Mexico to squeeze $2.0 billion in tariffs on U.S. tomatoes and potatoes before blinking. He signed the deal to allow full unfettered access with his counterpart Nieto in 2015.

American trucker stocks were on fire at the time. It peaked with the Dow Jones U.S. Truck Index hitting 576 on March 20, 2015, and then promptly tumbling to a low of 448 by July of this year- a decline of 22%.

So truckers are on fire to the general belief that the domestic economy is ready to come to life (hauling the components of a massive infrastructure means big money, in addition, greater consumer spending), but I bet there’s smart money out there that sees a Ronald Reagan-like  pre-inauguration coup. The Gipper got Iran to blink and to release 444 American hostages. I bet Trump will get concessions on the NAFTA sooner rather than later.

Gipper got Iran to blink and to release 444 American hostages. I bet Trump will get concessions on the NAFTA sooner rather than later. 

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Charles Payne
Wall Street Strategies


 

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