9/19/2016
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst

Last week was a very volatile week. It was full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. On that note, I disagree with Shakespeare and the overriding notion there is too much excitement over stocks and it’s the only place to put money to work.

Sure, stocks are more attractive than other investments, but try telling that to individual investors that have pulled billions out of the market.  Moreover, investor sentiment has been stuck in neutral or bearish for a long time.

In the last week, people shifted from neutral to bearish and both are significantly above their historical norms.  There could be pockets of irrational exuberance, but none can be found on Main Street.

With this in mind, every S&P sector, save technology closed lower last week. The Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) was helped by the 9.5% move in Apple (AAPL), which happened to be more than 14% of the index. This is a market searching for leadership, but it’s going to take more than one stock even if that stock is Apple.

I am not sure things will get much better this week, although we’ll get a lot of data on the housing market, which has mostly been a bright spot if not a consistent spot for the economy this year.

Ultimately, the moral of last week’s market came in as vulnerable, as it’s been since the January meltdown, and it staved off a worst-case scenario.

Keys for the Week

Looking ahead this week gives us a glimpse into the housing market; it has been one of the brightest areas of the economy, and could be on the cusp of picking up more steam.

In the second quarter, mortgage borrowing soared to $240.9 billion on an annualized basis after climbing $192.1 billion in the first quarter; this is the biggest increase since 2007.  The current household mortgage debt suggests more room to the upside as current levels are more than a trillion dollars below 2007.

The calendar should give us an idea of trends and potential as exogenous factors such as banking rules, and worker shortages that have hampered the housing market.

There is no doubt the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will have the most influence on the week, and there will be no rate hike.

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Charles Payne
Wall Street Strategies

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