7/20/2015
By Dominique Paul, Research Analyst

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. For the month of June, total CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month following a 0.4% gain in May. This was supported by growth in gasoline, shelter, and food prices. On an annual basis, prices are up 0.1% in June after coming in unchanged at 0.0%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.2% after gaining 0.1% in the prior month. This was influenced by growth in the indexes for shelter, recreation, airline fares, and tobacco. Year-over-year, core CPI is up 1.8% which is close to the Federal Reserve 2% inflation target.

The Census Bureau released a strong housing report that should really be influencing the major equity indices. For the month of June, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for building permits rose 7.4% from May to 1,343,000. Permits for single family homes rose 0.9% to a SAAR of 687,000. Housing starts for privately-owned homes rose at a SAAR of 1,174,000, which is up 9.8% from May’s SAAR of 1,069,000. Similar to permits, housing starts for single-family homes rose to 685,000. Regionally broken down, the Northeast saw the largest amount of starts, +35.5%, while the South and the West saw starts rise 10.4% and 13.5%, respectively. This report compliments the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) housing market index (HMI) which saw strong demand for single family homes.

Lastly, Michigan University released its preliminary July reading on consumer sentiment. Consumer sentiment faded slightly during the month, down three points to 93.3 from the 96.1 June final reading. Consumer activity has appeared to decrease, which makes sense looking at the slump in revolving credit growth. The current conditions and expectations components decreased to 106.0 and 85.2, respectively. 

Dominique Paul
Wall Street Strategies

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