6/22/2015
By Jennifer Coombs

There was an overall improvement in the run of economic data from May, but not enough to make much of a difference according to the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index. The index came in at a reading of -0.17 from a downwardly revised -0.19 reading in April, and the three-month average is telling a similar story of weakness at a reading of -0.16 versus a revised -0.20 in April. The highlight in May was obviously the jump in payroll growth, but the gain was offset by a higher unemployment rate. Other readings were little changes and all soft, primarily those in the production and manufacturing-related sectors. Nevertheless, the big bounce everyone was expecting after the dismal Q1-2015 has yet to take shape.

Most notably, the housing sector continues to pour out more positive data as the number of sales for existing homes jumped by a whopping 5.1% in May over the prior month to an annual rate of 5.35 million units. This was in-line with the high-end of the Street’s estimate range. However, the year-over-year rate tells the real story as sales have increased 9.2%, and outside of March’s 11.9% increase, is the strongest year-over-year change in nearly two years. The price of existing homes is also rising with a median price of $228,700 which is up 7.9% year-over-year. In particular, sales are strongest for single-family homes, up 5.6% in May to an annual rate of 4.73 million and up 9.7% year-over-year. In another sign of strength, first-time buyers are coming back to the market, making up 32.0% of all sales versus just 27.9% at this time a year ago. All four housing regions showed increases in May over the prior month. The lack of inventory was holding down sales with the supply-to-sales ratio at 5.1 months versus 5.2 months in April, and the median sales time held steady at 40 days. However, the rising sales rate plus the rise in prices should bring more homes to the market – which is already starting to happened as 2.29 million homes were on the market in May versus 2.20 million and 2.01 million in the prior two months. So far, so good when it comes to the housing sector going into the summer months, and it appears to be offsetting much of the weakness noted in the manufacturing sector as of late.

Jennifer Coombs
Wall Street Strategies

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