4/13/2015
By Jennifer Coombs

China reported a $3.08 billion trade surplus in March, which is down from the $7.7 billion surplus recorded in March 2014 and was well below market expectations. Exports fell by the greatest amount in a year, while imports posted the largest drop since May 2009. For the month, exports declined by 15.0% year-over-year to $145 billion, compared to a 48% increase in the prior month. Sales were down at all of China’s major export partners, but shipments were especially weak to European Union nations and Japan. On the other side, imports declined by 12.7% year-over-year to $141.5 billion as a result of falling commodity prices, and this was a mild drop compared to the 20.5% decline from February. Commerce with Australia contracted the most during the month, by a whopping 24.3%. In terms of yuan, exports plunged 14.6% year-over-year and imports dropped 12.3% in March. Overall for Q1-2015, total trade in China shrank by 6.3% over last year, as exports rose at a much slower 4.7% for the quarter while imports were down 17.3%. It appears a variety of factors are weighing on international trade around the globe, however currency imbalances are the main culprit and should impact trade globally in the near term.

 Next, India’s central bank recently voted not to alter interest rates, however one factor that will play into their evaluation in the next month will be inflation. In March, India’s annual consumer price index (CPI) declined to 5.17% from 5.37% in February and was well below economist expectations. Due to a massive slowdown in food costs, this makes March the lowest CPI rate in the last three months. The costs associated with food and drink increased by 6.2% in March, down from 6.76% in February, causing the food index to increase by 6.14%, but remained below the 6.79% index increase in February. Another big increase was recorded among the prices of fuel and electricity, which increased by 5.07% in March after rising by 4.72% in February. We note as well that corresponding provisional inflation rates for rural and urban areas of India for March are 5.58% percent and 4.75%, respectively. Low inflation coupled with low interest rates have managed to keep the Indian stock market afloat so far in 2015. However, alterations in monetary policy always threaten the balance, and this is a reality that the US might have to deal with in short order.

Jennifer Coombs
Wall Street Strategies

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