11/13/2014
By Jennifer Coombs

The Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed as of the last business day in September, there were 4.7 million job openings, bringing the openings rate to 3.3%.The number of job openings was little changed for total private and government in September, while the level of job openings decreased for arts, entertainment, and recreation. However, over the last twelve months ended in September, the number of non-seasonally adjusted job openings in September increased for total nonfarm, total private and government. Job openings increased over the last 52-weeks for many industries, including both professional and business services and health care and social assistance. In September, the hires level increased to 5.0 million, up from 4.7 million in August, making this the highest level of hires since December 2007. The JOLTS also showed that there were 4.8 million total separations in the month, up from 4.5 million in August. Total separations increased for total private jobs and were little changed for the government, with an overall separations rate of 3.4%. There were also 388,000 other separations for total nonfarm jobs, which didn’t change much from August. However, the most impressive portion of this report was in total quits, which increased to 2.8 million in September from 2.5 million in August. This spike is especially evident on the chart below and is the highest level of quits since April 2008, making the overall quits rate at 2.0% in September. Overall, quits increased for total private and government jobs, with particular increases in professional and business services, health care and social assistance, and state and local government. We note that the bulk of all quits were in Education/Health (+121K) and Healthcare (+111K). Quits are incredibly optimistic as people are becoming more comfortable leaving their current job feeling confident that they will find another job quickly.

On the jobless claims front, there was a slight uptick in claims after experiencing multi-year lows in recent weeks. For the week ended November 8^th, initial jobless claims increased by 12,000 to 290,000 which is the highest reading in the last seven weeks. Consensus was looking for a reading of 280,000. The 4-week rolling average also increased, up 6,000 to 285,000, which is the highest in the last five weeks. The previous period’s reading was left unrevised at 278,000. Lagging by a week, continuing jobless claims also increased by 36,000 in the November 1^st week to 2.392 million. The 4-week average is up very slightly by 1,000 to 2.373 million. Also, the unemployment rate for insured workers remains unchanged at 1.8%. We note that there were no special factors in this report, which unfortunately means there might be some bad news in the November jobs report. Of course we won’t know the answer to that in a while.

Jennifer Coombs
Wall Street Strategies

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