1/15/2010
By Conley Turner, Research Analyst

The conditions in Haiti were simply not sustainable.  The fact is that there has been pressure building both below and above the ground for the past 200 years.  While the former was due to geological forces, the later can be traced to social discontent among Haiti's masses due to implacable poverty and a tortured history of political and social abuse.   Though kept in check by the presence of thousands of UN peace keepers and police, something had to give. For all intents and purposes, Haiti appeared on many levels to have been on a collision course with destiny. 

Destruction and its close companion, death, have been frequent though unwelcomed visitors to Haiti, particularly over the past few years. This most recent visit has been especially unwelcomed.  Once the immediate needs of this disaster have been addressed and stabilization occurs, the stark reality of rebuilding a nation will come squarely into focus.

In spite of its long and ambivalent history with the Haitians, this time around the involvement of the U.S. is likely to be more enduring. This perspective stems from the obvious fact that a country in the western hemisphere has been more or less destroyed by a natural disaster, and America being the leader is morally obligated to lead in its recovery. Beyond morality however, is the strategic issue of security.  Grinding poverty and lack of opportunity has proven to be the breeding ground for much of the radicalism that is occurring in the world today.   The last thing the US would wants in its backyard is for a vulnerable Haiti to cozy up to Venezuela or Cuba for lack support.

Furthermore, China's increased involvement in hemispheric affairs will likely force Washington's hand.  China has already been quietly acquiring property in Haiti and already had a few hundred riot police in the country as part of the UN peace keeping mission.  The fact that the Chinese were among the first on the ground despite being on the other side of the globe speaks volumes about the country's ambitions and growing global reach.  Should the US shy away from a significant effort in the rebuilding of Haiti, the Chinese are likely to fill that void and establish what will be tantamount to a beach head in the region.

The US does have a considerable amount of experience in nation building.  It implemented the Marshall Plan in the aftermath of World War II to rebuild much of Western Europe and is currently undertaking what looks suspiciously like nation building in Iraq and Afghanistan.  A Haitian mission would be a far simpler undertaking and likely not nearly as costly as current engagements in remote parts of the world.

At the end of the day, a dramatic change had to occur in Haiti and this earthquake, as tragic as it is, may have facilitated that.  It may actually be the catalyst for a shift in the country's history.   Looking forward, it is unlikely that things will return to the pre quake status quo. The complete and utter devastation represents a chance for a new beginning for a proud people who have suffered for far too long but whose legendary resilience have been forged as a result of  it.